RAND’s Portfolio Analysis Tool: Theory, Methods, and Reference Manual
RAND Corp, Dececmber, 2009
Strategic planning often involves investing in a mix of capabilities and activities and assessing the adequacy of options for meeting a variety of objectives. Such an analysis “portfolio” may be characterized by allocation across investment categories or by the corresponding allocation across objectives. RAND's Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT) was designed to facilitate strategic analysis dealing with both uncertainty and differences of perspective.
http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/2009/RAND_TR756.pdf
Medvedev's Amendments to the Law on Defense: The Consequences for Europe
ISN Publication, November 27, 2009
This brief examines the Russian Law on Defense, particularly the so-called Medvedev amendments that allow for Russian troops to be deployed abroad for four purposes. The author argues that the vagueness of these amendments enables Russia to deploy its armed forces abroad in a wide range of situations. The ultimate aim, the author posits, may be for Russia to use this military leverage to consolidate its domination of the post-Soviet space.
Afghanistan Strategy on Stage: Five Key Questions for the Administration
CNAS, December 01, 2009
The upcoming congressional testimony of President Obama's national security team on Afghanistan may be the most pivotal since September 2007. Upon the President's announcement to send 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan, President John Nagl and CNAS Senior Fellow Richard Fontaine lay out five key questions that Congress and the administration should consider.
Crisis Watch, Nr. 76
ISN Publication, December 01, 2009
In Yemen, ongoing fighting in the northern Saada region between the government and Houthi-led rebels spilled across the country’s border when the rebels launched an incursion into the Jebel Dukhan area of neighboring Saudi Arabia on 3 November. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the northwest province of Equateur erupted in violent clashes over farming and fishing rights in late October and November. November also brought a sharp escalation in tensions between Venezuela and Colombia, as Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez lashed out over a controversial deal authorizing the U.S. to use several military bases on Colombian territory for counter-narcotics operations.
India and its South Asian Neighbors
ISN Publication, December 01, 2009
This paper provides a summary analysis of India's relations with each of its immediate neighbors - except China - and outlines the evolution of India's foreign policy since the 1990s. The author notes that India, as a regional hegemon, would prefer a peaceful and prosperous neighborhood responsive to its own needs, but this is unlikely to occur in the foreseeable future. The paper offers some conclusions on India's approach to its neighbors, suggesting it is often too reactive, and at times quite dismissive though this has been improving.
Cyprus: A Unique Opportunity for Reunification
ISN Publication, November 25, 2009
This paper analyzes the situation in the negotiations over the reunification of Cyprus, highlighting the main issues at stake and the positions of the protagonists. The author argues that there is a unique window of opportunity, but one that will not remain open forever. He stresses that time is running out as the Turkish Cypriot leader faces re-election in April 2010 and could be defeated by a more hard-line candidate. He concludes that the Cyprus problem is likely to come to a head during Spain's presidency of the EU in the first half of 2010.
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110111/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/94081B18-3B1A-48A1-9436-16F27AE89257/en/WP_61_English.pdf
The Talibanisation of Pakistan’s Western Region
ISN Publication, November 24, 2009
This paper analyzes the deterioration of the political and security situation in the western regions of Pakistan: the Federally Administered Tribal Regions (FATA), the North-West Frontier Province and Balochistan. It discusses the historical background of the situation, including the system of governance evolved by the British for the FATA. The author assesses and evaluates the Pakistani government's response to the security situation, and gives policy recommendations as to how peace could be achieved in the region.
Understanding Commanders' Information Needs for Influence Operations
RAND Corp., November 23, 2009
The objectives of this study were to develop a better understanding of commanders' information requirements pertaining to cultural and other “soft” factors (e.g., networks and hierarchies, cultural norms, attitudes) in order to improve the effectiveness of combined arms operations, and to develop practical ways for commanders to integrate information and influence operations activities into combined arms planning and assessment in order to increase the usefulness to ground commanders of such operations. The monograph describes commanders' own views of their information needs for information and influence operations, identifies principal sources of commanders' information needs for these operations, and sets out important challenges associated with improving the ability of field commanders to plan, execute, and assess successful information and influence operations. Also included is a review of various indicators related to information and influence operations that have been used in the field; specific message themes that were used in Bosnia; a detailed analysis of tasks related to information and influence operations; an implementation plan for a metrics-based planning and assessment approach for information and influence operations that was developed in an earlier study; a taxonomy of information operations tasks and effects; and assessments of the suitability of two analytic techniques — expected utility modeling and social network analysis — for information and influence operations.
Climate Commitments to 2050: A Roadmap for China
ISN Publication, December 2009
This publication addresses the issue of climate change and state commitments. It first provides an exposition of the likely Chinese negotiating position for international climate talks, especially for the Copenhagen conference. Then, different authors discuss the uncertainty of emissions trajectory and the legal nature of binding commitments. They also analyze wider issues in international climate talks and the urgency of making commitments for 2013.
Libya: A Critical Review of Tripoli’s Sub-Saharan African Policies
ISN Publication, November 23, 2009
This paper examines Libya's foreign policy in a geopolitical context and in relation to sub-Saharan Africa in particular. The first section looks at the internal structures of the Jamahiriya and addresses the internal dynamics within the revolutionary committees in the country. The second section deals with the main geopolitical factors that can be said to inform Libya's foreign policy. The third section looks at Libya's presumed role in the political (de)-stabilization of some African countries, particularly in Central and West Africa. The fourth section examines Libya's role as a peace broker and development partner in Africa.
Virtual Criminology Report 2009 – Virtually Here: The Age of Cyber Warfare
McAfee, 2009
From McAfee introduction: “Is the “Age of Cyber War” at hand? This year, the fifth annual McAfee Virtual Criminology Report contemplates this question and others prompted by the fact that nation-states are arming themselves for the cyberspace battlefield. Since our 2007 report, when we last discussed the growing cyber threat to national security, there have been increasing reports of cyber attacks and network infiltrations that appear to be linked to nation-states and political goals. The most obvious of these attacks was the August 2008 cyber campaign against
Georgia during the South Ossetia War. We decided it was time to further examine whether cyber warfare is now a part of human conflict that we should get used to seeing more often.”
Hamid Karzai’s Second Term as Afghanistan’s President: Promises, Challenges, and Prospects
ISN Publication, November 24, 2009
This brief examines President Hamid Karzai's second term in Afghanistan and particularly its challenges and prospects. The author analyzes Karzai's pledges, the issue of corruption and the US position in more detail.
Warming Increases the Risk of Civil War in Africa
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), October 14, 2009
Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments’ and foreign aid donors’ policies to deal with rising temperatures.
Armed Conflict Deaths Disaggregated by Gender
ISN Publication, November 23, 2009
This paper attempts to assess the impact of armed conflict on populations through a gender-focused approach. The authors use gender-specific casualty data to provide an empirical framework for such a study. They conclude that although men are more likely to die during conflicts, women die more often of indirect causes after the conflict is over.
Afghanistan: Elections and the Crisis of Governance
ISN Publication, November 25, 2009
This brief analyzes the Afghan elections, their aftermath and the breakdown of governance under Hamid Karzai's watch. The authors argue that to restore legitimacy and stability, vigorous constitutional reform must be undertaken; an impartial inquiry into the flawed elections should be formed; the UN Mission in Afghanistan should be restructured to restore credibility, and prompt steps must be taken to strengthen institutions.
My Cousin’s Enemy is my Friend: A Study of Pashtun “Tribes” in Afghanistan
US Army – Afghanistan Research Reachback Center, September 2009
This paper examines Libya's foreign policy in a geopolitical context and in relation to sub-Saharan Africa in particular. The first section looks at the internal structures of the Jamahiriya and addresses the internal dynamics within the revolutionary committees in the country. The second section deals with the main geopolitical factors that can be said to inform Libya's foreign policy. The third section looks at Libya's presumed role in the political (de)-stabilization of some African countries, particularly in Central and West Africa. The fourth section examines Libya's role as a peace broker and development partner in Africa.
State of the World Population 2009
United Nations Population Fund, Fall 2009
A growing body of evidence shows that recent climate change is primarily the result of human activity. The influence of human activity on climate change is complex. It is about what we consume, the types of energy we produce and use, whether we live in a city or on a farm, whether we live in a rich or poor country, whether we are young or old, what we eat, and even the extent to which women and men enjoy equal rights and opportunities. It is also about our growing numbers—approaching 7 billion.
Caribbean Country Study
Energy Information Administration, Fall 2009
The islands of the Caribbean basin are predominantly net energy importers, with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago. Some islands, such as Aruba, Curacao, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, are important centers for oil refining and storage, due to their proximity to the U.S. market. In recent years, there has been concern that higher global oil prices will impair the Caribbean economies, as they are highly dependent upon oil for the energy needs. In response, the island nations have been discussing ways to promote alternative energy sources and better integrate their energy sectors.
Estimated Nuclear Weapons Locations 2009
Federation of American Scientists (FAS) National Security Blog, Hans M. Kristensen, November 25, 2009
The world’s approximately 23,300 nuclear weapons are stored at an estimated 111 locations in 14 countries, according to an overview produced by FAS and NRDC.
Nearly half of the weapons are operationally deployed with delivery systems capable of launching on short notice. The overview is published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and includes the July 2009 START memorandum of understanding data. A previous version was included in the annual report from the International Panel of Fissile Materials published last month.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment