The Economics and Politics of China's Exchange Rate Adjustment

ISN Publication, December 28, 2009
"This publication analyzes the on-going revaluation process of China's currency. The author argues that this adjustment depends largely on the dynamics of China's labor and financial market. He also states that South Asia is generally not hurt, and in fact may gain, from an undervalued Chinese currency."
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110879/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/7CFF2741-B56A-43BB-A74C-24776D7A59EB/en/89.pdf 

Fixing Intel: A Blueprint for Making Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan

Center for a New American Security, January 2010
"This paper, written by the senior intelligence officer in Afghanistan and by a company-grade officer and a senior executive with the Defense Intelligence Agency, critically examines the relevance of the U.S. intelligence community to the counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan. Based on discussions with hundreds of people inside and outside the intelligence community, it recommends sweeping changes to the way the intelligence community thinks about itself – from a focus on the enemy to a focus on the people of Afghanistan. The paper argues that because the United States has focused the overwhelming major­ity of collection efforts and analytical brainpower on insurgent groups, our intelligence apparatus still finds itself unable to answer fundamental ques­tions about the environment in which we operate and the people we are try­ing to protect and persuade."
http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/AfghanIntel_Flynn_Jan2010_code507_voices.pdf

Middle East Notes and Comment: Waiting for the Deluge

CSIS, December 15, 2009
"In a region that already has enough conflicts, another one is brewing, and it comes from a surprising source: the Nile. The river that witnessed history from the pharaohs through the Bible and on to the nationalist revolution of 1952 seems poised to enter a new phase, and there may not be enough water to go around."
http://csis.org/files/publication/1209_MENC.pdf 

Central Asia: Migrants and the Economic Crisis

Crisis Group, January 5, 2010
"If Central Asian countries want to survive as viable independent states and avoid political and social instability in the region, they need to make urgent reforms in the labour sector. The International Crisis Group examines the impact of the global financial crisis on migration from three Central Asian countries:  Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The report warns that the lumpenisation of Central Asian societies will continue, as qualified, educated and healthy younger members of the work force leave for Russia and Kazakhstan."
http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/central_asia/183_central_asia___migrants_and_economic_crisis.pdf 

Mullahs, Guards, and Bonyads: An Exploration of Iranian Leadership Dynamics

RAND Corp., January 2010
"The Islamic Republic of Iran poses serious challenges to U.S. interests in the Middle East, and its nuclear program continues to worry the international community. The presidential election of June 2009 that returned Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power and led to broad protests and a government crackdown presents yet another cause for U.S. concern. Yet the U.S. ability to “read” the Iranian regime and formulate appropriate policies has been handicapped by both a lack of access to the country and the opacity of decisionmaking in Tehran. To help analysts better understand the Iranian political system, the authors describe:

• Iranian strategic culture, including the perceptions that drive state behavior
• the informal networks, formal government institutions, and personalities that influence decisionmaking in the Islamic Republic
• the impact of elite behavior on Iranian policy formulation and execution
• factionalism, emerging fissures within the current regime, and other key trends."

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG878.pdf 

Health and Medical Research in France

RAND Corp, January 2010
"This documented briefing provides an overview of the health and medical research system in France. The report is supported by the Department of Health (England)."
http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/2010/RAND_DB590.pdf

Is There a European Medical Research Area?: Observatory on Health Research Systems

RAND Corp., January 2010
"This documented briefing provides an overview of the European Research Area and explores whether such an integrated research area exists in health and biomedical research. The report is supported by the Department of Health (England)."
http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/2010/RAND_DB588.pdf 

Issues in International Political Economy: Situation in Latin America, Year-end 2009

CSIS, January 4, 2009
"The political differences among the countries in Latin America are profound, and this reality is perhaps the most important political commentary to make at year-end 2009. Countries of the region are more apt to learn from each other in the economic field."
http://csis.org/files/publication/issues200912.pdf 

Crisis Watch, Nr. 77

ISN Publication, January 4, 2010
"This issue of CrisisWatch summarizes developments during the month of December 2009 in some 70 situations of ongoing or potential conflict. These are listed alphabetically by region and provide references and links to more detailed information sources. It assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, during the previous month, significantly deteriorated, improved or on balance remained unchanged. Moreover, it alerts readers to situations where there is a particular risk of escalated conflict or, on the other hand, a conflict resolution opportunity."
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110912/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/DF8BD9DD-C34B-4907-8A39-4234DD2C0BFD/en/cw77.pdf 

The East European Financial Crisis

ISN Publication, December 17, 2009
"This paper discusses the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 in 13 countries: the 10 new EU members that previously were communist and the three countries of western former Soviet Union. The author argues that the dominant cause of the crisis was fixed exchange rates and elaborates on some of the lessons can be drawn from this crisis."
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110749/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/11C3322E-C0B5-47FB-8AF6-E4AA4EFC335B/en/395_Dec+17.pdf 

The Afghan War at the End of 2009: Why the War is at a Crisis Stage

CSIS, January 4, 2010
"This report focuses only on the fighting, and not on the full range of issues that must be addressed to win the war. It is essential to win meaningful victories at the tactical level, but there are six additional -- and equally critical -- elements of a successful campaign that still need to be addressed in a meaningful enough public form to provide any confidence that the President’s strategy is being effectively implemented."
http://csis.org/files/publication/100104_afghan_war_at_end_09.pdf 

A Delicate Balance: Portfolio Analysis and Management for Intelligence Information Dissemination Programs

RAND Corp, December 2009
"This description of the application of the RAND Corporation's PortMan portfolio analysis and management method for the National Security Agency (NSA) Information Sharing Services (ISS) division demonstrates how PortMan (1) enables the data-driven analysis of project portfolios and (2) provides a means for monitoring the progress of potentially high-value projects and associated risk-mitigation strategies."
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG939.pdf

How Terrorist Groups Survive: A Dynamic Network Analysis Approach to the Resilience of Terrorist Organizations

School of Advanced Military Studies, May 21, 2009
"The purpose of this paper is to explore the question of how modern terrorist groups manage to survive in the face of aggressive counterterrorist operations by security forces. Al Qa’ida survives to this day, despite the destruction of their Afghanistan sanctuary, the loss of countless key personnel, and continuous pressure by the United States and their allies. Why has al Qa’ida survived? Since much of the literature on terrorism focuses on how to eliminate them, this research paper focuses on why they still endure. In other words, instead of asking, 'How do we kill them,' this research asks, 'Why don’t they die?''
http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA507988&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf

Felony Sentences in State Courts, 2006 - Statistical Tables

Bureau of Justice Statistics, December 2009
"Presents findings from the 2006 National Judicial Reporting Program (NJRP), which compiles detailed information on the sentences that felons receive in state courts nationwide and on characteristics of the felons. The survey excludes federal courts and state or local courts that do not adjudicate adult felony cases. The tables in this publication provide data on the number of felony offenders in state courts, sentences received, demographic characteristics of convicted felons, and types of convictions. The report also covers comparisons to felony sentences in federal courts, using data from the Federal Justice Statistics Program (FJSP). The 2006 NJRP was based on a sample of state courts in 300 counties selected to be nationally representative. The survey included only offenses that state penal codes defined as felonies. Felonies are widely defined as crimes with the potential of being punished by more than 1 year in prison. NJRP surveys have been conducted every 2 years since 1986."
http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc06st.pdf 

Central Asia: Islamists in Prison

ISN Publication, December 15, 2009
"This brief assesses the problem of Islamists in prison in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. It argues that Islamist proselytizers are consolidating their position within the informal structures of power behind prison walls. Incarcerating determined activists is providing them with the opportunity to extend their influence among convicts, at first inside prison and then on their release. It also argues that for over a decade, muddle-through has been the strategy of choice for Central Asia’s rulers and that with the increasing armed threats coming from Afghanistan and deepening economic problems, time may no longer be on their side."
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110693/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/10DCCC52-D39E-4055-8FAB-4A983568E2E7/en/b97_central_asia_islamists_in_prison.pdf

Reshuffling the Cards?: Syria's New Hand

ISN Publication, December 16, 2009
"This publication concentrates on the new assets of Syria’s foreign policy. Taking into account Syria's decision to accelerate economic reforms and resume peace talks with Israel in 2009, this paper assesses the consequences of such moves on Syria’s foreign policy goals. It argues that while Syria's policy moves have traditionally been driven by short-term objectives, the US administration’s vision for the region will have a decisive impact on Syria's future policy."
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110736/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/C1714B2D-7AB3-49D4-BEF0-351EFD6D3BF0/en/93_syrias_new_hand.pdf 

New Year, New Style (maybe)

With new years, come new things.
Now that the new year is finally here, I've decided try something different with the blog postings.  Well, technically it's not really anything different, just a different posting style that I have been debating since the inception of this blog.  From here on out, I plan on posting the resources individually as I get them rather than as one weekly post. The positives of doing my posts this way include the ability to individually share posted resources with anyone else who my find it useful (by using the share button at the end of each post), better tagging and therefore better searching of my blog posts, and a higher likelihood of others finding these resources through search engines (as the post titles will now read the title of the resource instead of a date range).

However, there are a few downsides to this.  The biggest downside is that you will no longer have the consistent routine of a Thursday post.  Furthermore, the posts will not really have any schedule consistency and will reflect my sporadic internet usage, resulting in a purging of posts followed by droughts.  Lastly, because of some good changes with my employer, I will likely be updating this less often and possibly getting rid of this blog all-together (but this is still yet to be decided depending on my work schedule).
Hopefully the changes to the blog will be beneficial for you, and hopefully I'll still be able to keep up with keeping you updated!

Let the individual posts begin!

Dec 18 – Dec 24, 2009

Issues and Insights Vol. 09 – No. 22: High Seas and Rising Tides – US-Japan Maritime Cooperation

CSIS, December 29, 2009

“For trading nations like Japan and the United States, the high seas have a special significance. Oceans do not just provide “moats” that protect the homeland from foreign enemies, but are vital highways for the commerce upon which their prosperity depends. It is not surprising that these two nations have made securing and protecting the maritime domain a top priority in their national security strategies and in their alliance. The growing interconnectedness of the global economy has triggered a shift in thinking about the oceans in other nations. While they acknowledge the increasing significance of the maritime domain to their national interest, they have been less quick to see the high seas as a “global commons.” Too often, national maritime policies are all too national and parochial in their approach.”

http://csis.org/files/publication/issuesinsights_v09n22.pdf

 

Issues and Insights Vol. 09 – No. 21: Dynamics of the US-Japan Alliance – Next Generation Perspectives

CSIS, December 29, 2009

“For more than a decade, the Pacific Forum CSIS, in conjunction with the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) and the Consulate General of Japan in San Francisco, has hosted a bilateral security seminar. The 15th annual Japan-U.S. Security Seminar, held March 27-28, 2009, brought together a select group of experts to explore the prospects and problems that this partnership faces in coming years. Participants are united in their belief that this alliance is vital to the security interests of both nations and serves as a cornerstone of regional stability and prosperity. That by no means guarantees its survival, but it does provide a firm foundation for action.”

http://csis.org/files/publication/issuesinsights_v09n21.pdf

 

China Security Vol.5 No.3: A Journal of China’s Strategic Development

China Security, December, 2009

“This peer-reviewed journal published by the World Security Institute (WSI) expresses diverse Chinese views on a range of security issues of importance to China, Asia, Sino-American relations and the world. China Security is published quarterly in English.”

Articles include:

1 A More Powerful China on Parade  -Zhang Xiaoming 
2 Times Change, the Parade Stays the Same  -Matt Durnin
3 China’s Response to the Myanmar Refugee Crisis  -Drew Thompson
4 Climate Change, Water and China’s National Interest  -Scott Moore
5 The Rio Tinto Case and China’s Drive to Guard Secrets  -Jiang Ruqin
6 Secrets, Spies and Steel: the Rio Tinto Case  -Peter Yuan Cai
7 Superficial, Arrogant Nationalism  -Xiao Gongqin
8 Indian Ocean: Oil, Sea Lanes and the Security Dilemma  -Jason J. Blazevic
9 True Motives for China’s Manned Space Program  -Fiona Cunningham

http://www.chinasecurity.us/index.php?option=com_csissues&secid=13&catid=906&task=catetory&Itemid=8

 

Iran’s Latest Protests

CSIS, December 29, 2009

“The latest events in Iran (the death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, whom many considered the reformists’ spiritual leader; the unrest and brutal behavior of the regime’s thugs; the show trials; and the revelations about rape, torture, and executions) are symptoms of a tectonic shift in Iran’s political environment. Despite repeated warnings by the regime’s leaders, the Revolutionary Guards, the Basij, and even the police that demonstrations would be sternly confronted and that many would be arrested, the latest reformist and opposition demonstrations have been extensive and even more daring than those following the June elections. The longer these demonstrations go on in the face of demands by hardliners and even the speaker of the Majlis to arrest and mercilessly handle the opposition, the clearer it is that the focus of the opposition is no longer on Ahmadinejad but the system itself and Supreme Leader Khamenei.”

http://csis.org/publication/irans-latest-protests

 

Data Collection Methods: Semi-Structured Interviews and Focus Groups

RAND Corp, December, 2009

“The authors developed an introductory short course on qualitative research methods. This document provides an annotated version of the course material, which includes an overview of semi-structured interviews and focus groups, two techniques that are commonly used in policy research and applicable to many research questions.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/2009/RAND_TR718.pdf

 

Preparing and Training for the Full Spectrum of Military Challenges: Insights from the Experiences of China, France, the United Kingdom, India, and Israel

RAND Corp, December, 2009

“The U.S. military training system is the envy of many countries around the world, so what can the United States learn from other militaries about how better to prepare for full-spectrum operations and deployments? The authors examine the militaries of China, France, the UK, India, and Israel to identify different approaches to readiness, adaptability, and operational issues, including: using subject-matter experts to improve training for specific deployments, using staff training to prepare forces for multiple contingencies, allowing combat training centers to focus on foundational skills, and preparing units for a specific operational environment prior to deployment.  The authors also examine how the United States, France, and the UK prepare for and conduct train, advise, and assist (TAA) missions, finding that the three countries employ significantly different approaches to staff selection, TAA deployments, staff training, and career progression.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG836.pdf

 

Consolidated Afloat Networks and Enterprise Services (CANES): Manpower, Personnel, and Training Implications

RAND Corp, December, 2009

“The computer networks, systems, and applications used on Navy ships are an amalgam of disparate hardware and software systems that were developed and introduced onboard largely independent from one another. The Consolidated Afloat Networks and Enterprise Services (CANES) initiative is designed to consolidate and improve the networks on tactical platforms, largely through a common computing environment. The conversion to CANES could reduce requirements for manpower and alter the demand for training. This report provides a review of current Navy manpower, personnel, and training practices; the implications of the conversion to CANES; and resulting recommendations.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG896.pdf

 

Justice Department Bulletin Details Declining Juvenile Arrests in 2008

Office of Justice Programs (OJP), December 15, 2009

“Drawing on the latest available data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's annual Crime in the United States report, the bulletin summarizes juvenile crimes known to the police and arrests made during 2008. Published annually by OJP's Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, these data characterize the extent and nature of juvenile crime that comes to the attention of the justice system. In 2008, U.S. law enforcement agencies arrested an estimated 2.11 million persons younger than age 18, a 3-percent decline over 2007. Also, in 2008, the rate of juvenile arrests for violent offenses—murder, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault—decreased 2 percent over 2007, continuing a recent decline.”

http://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/228479.pdf

 

Managing Sensitive Information: Actions Needed to Prevent Unintended Public Disclosures of US Nuclear Sites and Activities

GAO, December, 2009

“GAO recommends, among other things, that Commerce, DOE, State, and NRC enter into an interagency agreement concerning the designation, marking, and handling of sensitive information in future draft declarations and make any policy or regulatory changes necessary to reach such an agreement. DOE, State, and GPO agreed, while NRC neither agreed nor disagreed, with the recommendations. Commerce, White House Counsel, and the House Offices of the Clerk, Security, and Paliamentarian did not comment on GAO’s recommendations.”

http://www.fas.org/sgp/gao/iaea.pdf

 

The Stockholm Programme: Europe’s Next Step on its Quest to be an “Area of Freedom, Security, and Justice”

ISN Publication, December 15, 2009

“This brief examines the Stockholm Programme, a key component of the Justice and Home Affairs pillar of the EU, and the agenda for future action on this front. In addition to analyzing the plan on a general level, the author looks at migration policy in more detail. He argues that it is one of the most politically difficult areas within the program.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110670/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/70267294-E76F-43C3-BD7F-7D8BDB180383/en/UPI_Briefing_Paper_49_2009.pdf

 

From Virtual to European Democracy: The Origins and Consequences of the Political Breakthrough in Moldova

ISN Publication, December 15, 2009

“This paper describes the political crisis which emerged in Moldova over the spring and summer of 2009 against the background of the deeper political and social processes which have been occurring since 2001. The first part of the study describes the evolution of the Moldovan political system under former president Vladimir Voronin, characterized as an autocracy with a democratic façade. The second part examines Moldova's relations with three key external actors: the EU, Russia and Romania. It shows how Voronin's tactical moves led to a division between the regime and society.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110686/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/EA41212E-FB1F-4F25-ABBA-D0FBC535389F/en/PRACE_32.pdf

 

Changing Paradigm in Somalia

ISN Publication, December 14, 2009

“This paper provides an update on the conflict in Somalia and assesses the achievements and shortcomings of the Djibouti reconciliation process thus far. The author argues that security sector reform and the strengthening of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Somalia do not, in themselves, provide a solution to the country's plight.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110684/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/EAE49469-FB3C-4D08-9DBA-163380AE4911/en/SITREPSOMALIA14122009.pdf

Dec 18 – Dec 24, 2009

Exploring the Nuclear Posture Implications of Extended Deterrence and Assurance

CSIS, December 01, 2009

“The purpose of the report is to identify the characteristics of the U.S. nuclear force posture that support extended deterrence and analyze how changes in the force posture affect the credibility of its assurance, paying particular attention to the competing needs and interests of U.S. allies in Europe, Northeast Asia and the Middle East.”

http://csis.org/files/publication/091218_nuclear_posture.pdf

 

Jonglei’s Tribal Conflicts: Countering Insecurity in South Sudan

Crisis Group, December 23, 2009

“Jonglei is the largest of South Sudan’s ten states, comprising some 120,000 square kilometres. Home to 1.3 million inhabitants, it is also among the most underdeveloped regions in the world. Multiple ethnic communities migrate seasonally to sustain cattle and preserve their pastoralist way of life. Access to water and grazing areas, as well as cattle rustling, are thus primary triggers of conflict. Tensions between communities are aggravated by pervasive tribalism and perceptions of state bias, the virtual absence of roads and infrastructure, widespread food insecurity, land disputes and limited access to justice. The escalating conflict cycles witnessed in and around Jonglei in 2009 have sown deep mistrust, and movement during the dry season could reignite large-scale conflict early in 2010.”

http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/africa/horn_of_africa/4_jongleis_tribal_conflicts___countering_insecurity_in_south_sudan.pdf

 

Trends in Connectivity Technologies and Their Socioeconomic Impacts: Policy Options for the Ubiquitous Internet Society

RAND Corp., December 17, 2009

“This report contains a review of technology trends underlying the future Internet Society. It assesses the possible future socio-economic impacts; as well as the changing business models that are likely to emerge in the next 5 to 10 years. The ultimate objective of the study is to make future policy recommendations for the successor programme to the current EU’s ICT strategy: the i2010 programme. The project involved trend analysis, econometric modelling [sic], desk research, interviews, a survey, scenario development and gaming.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/2009/RAND_TR776.pdf

 

The Aryan Circle: Crime in the Name of Hate

Anti-Defamation League (ADL), December 16, 2009

“The Aryan Circle is a large, growing and dangerous white supremacist gang based primarily in Texas. Active in prisons and on the streets, it has a long track record of murder, including the deaths of two police officers in Bastrop, Louisiana, in 2007.”  This report goes on to report how this hate group has spread its influence and membership across the state of Texas to over 1400 members.  In addition, the ADL delves into all the inner-workings of the Aryan Circle – including recruitment techniques and the role of women in their group.

http://www.adl.org/extremism/Aryan-Circle-Report.pdf

 

Natural Gas and Israel’s Energy Future: A Strategic Analysis Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty (Technical Report)

RAND Corp, December 2009

“Ensuring a sufficient supply of energy, particularly electricity, to meet the ever-greater demands of a booming Israeli economy is a national concern. Israel began to introduce natural gas into its energy mix only in 2004. This report examines strategic alternatives available to Israel to make greater use of domestic and imported sources of natural gas. It explores both natural gas-utilization and supply-infrastructure strategies in an environment characterized by extreme uncertainty and potentially large consequences. It provides a detailed understanding of what are favorable future environments for Israel and, perhaps more importantly, what factors would lead to futures that are undesirable in light of Israel's goals and interests.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/2009/RAND_TR747.pdf

 

Natural Gas and Israel’s Energy Future: Near Term Decisions from a Strategic Perspective

RAND Corp., December, 2009

“Israel's electric-power system needs new capacity to meet the demands of its growing economy. Israel must make major decisions on investing in new base-load generating capacity in the near future. Planners and policymakers need to consider likely future levels of demand, the costs and availability of sources of supply, security of supply, reliability, environmental effects, and land use. Decisions have to be made under conditions of deep uncertainty about what the future may have in store. This monograph discusses the opportunities and risks the government of Israel faces in shifting to a greater reliance on domestic and imported natural gas. The analysis seeks to help the Israeli government engage in managed change by choosing robust strategies that minimize potential consequences of relying more heavily on natural gas.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG927.english.pdf

 

Roadmap to Low Carbon Energy by 2030

WorldWatch Institute, December 2009

“Tackling climate change and a host of other global challenges will require systematic transformation of the global energy system over the next several decades, according to Renewable Revolution: Low-Carbon Energy by 2030, by Janet Sawin and William Moomaw. The report, released by the Worldwatch Institute and the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP), highlights four key synergies between energy efficiency and renewable energy and argues that these two strategies, used in concert, can play a key role in meeting rising global demand for energy services while averting catastrophic climate change.”

http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/Renewable%20Revolution.pdf

 

Seizing Opportunities for Turkey’s rowing Influence

ISN Publication, December 09, 2009

“This memo argues that Turkey is becoming an increasingly important regional player as well as an indispensible ally to the US and the EU. It provides suggestions for the EU and US to follow to ensure Turkey will continue to be a constructive ally.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110526/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/36259482-4823-4DC6-A632-AF24295B7C15/en/Memo+21+Turkey.pdf

 

The Cambodia-Thailand Conflict: A Test for ASEAN

ISN Publications, December 10, 2009

“This publication analyzes the role of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the political crisis between Cambodia and Thailand. The author argues that this crisis presents a test case for ASEAN to act as a key player in resolving disputes among its members. They contend that a failure to do so would reduce ASEAN's credibility and impede the realization by 2015 of an ASEAN community.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110515/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/B2AFB852-EC4E-46BF-AD27-C0A1FBDF9D2E/en/apb044.pdf

 

No 70: The North Caucuses Crisis

ISN Publications, December 21, 2009

“This paper addresses the situation in Russia's Northern Caucasus 10 years after the beginning of the second Chechen War and Vladimir Putin's subsequent rise to power. It explores the situation in Chechnya after the official end of the counterterrorist operations, discusses social-political instability in Ingushetia and looks at the relations between Dagestan and the Russian state. One of the authors argues that after the lift of the counterterrorist operations regime in Chechnya in spring 2009, the situation in the Caucasus deteriorated dramatically.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110674/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/48838009-56F5-4113-882B-C2B286736AA9/en/Russian_Analytical_Digest_70.pdf

 

Recasting NATO’s Strategic Concept: Possible Directions for the United States

RAND Corp., December 2009

“To address its security challenges, the United States needs the active support of its allies. This means, in particular, ensuring that the states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) remain able and willing to make a contribution to resolving their common security problems wherever possible. The revision of NATO's strategic concept offers an excellent opportunity to further this aim. It is a chance to build consensus about the future and thereby steer the alliance in a direction that will help keep it relevant. This paper examines five possible directions — refocus on Europe, new focus on the greater Middle East, focus on fragile states, focus on nonstate threats, and a global alliance of liberal democracies — the alliance might adopt, assessing them against certain key political and military criteria. It offers those involved in the rewrite both a range of potential options and a preliminary assessment of the feasibility and potential implications of each. The purpose is to encourage debate around the major, concrete problems that member states face.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP280.pdf

 

The Philippines: After the Maguindanao Massacre

Crisis Group, December 21, 2009

“The international outrage generated by last month’s massacre in Maguindanao, southern Philippines, of 57 men and women, half of them journalists, may offer opportunities to make progress in the areas of justice, security and peace. The latest update briefing from the International Crisis Group shows how the 23 November killings were not the result of a clan feud, as widely reported, but of Manila’s deliberate nurturing of a ruthless warlord in exchange for votes.”

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/getfile.cfm?id=4229&tid=6451&l=1

 

Target America Series, No. 23

NEFA Foundation, December 17, 2009

“The NEFA Foundation has released the 23rd report in the “Target: America” series, a PowerPoint presentation examining the September 23rd, 2009, attempt by Michael C. Finton (a.k.a. Talib Islam) to trigger a bomb packed in a van that he had parked outside of the Paul Findley Federal Building in Springfield, Illinois.”

http://www.nefafoundation.org/miscellaneous/FeaturedDocs/nefa_fintontargetamerica.pdf

 

Iran as a Nuclear Weapons Power

CSIS, December 16, 2009

“The latest discoveries regarding Iran’s nuclear program are simply the next development in a process that has been going on since the Iran-Iraq War, and Khomeini’s decision to resume nuclear research once Iran came under chemical weapons attack from Iraq.”

http://csis.org/files/publication/091216_IrannuclearRpt.pdf

 

Uribe’s Possible Third Term and Conflict Resolution in Colombia

Crisis Group, December 18, 2009

“The decision on whether to change the constitution to enable President Álvaro Uribe to seek a third consecutive term in 2010 will have important consequences for Colombia’s efforts to resolve its armed conflict and tensions with its neighbours. The International Crisis Group examines the process of enabling a third presidential term and why the decision on this fundamental issue needs to be accompanied by a recognition that pressing questions of national security, strengthening of democratic institutions and conflict resolution will not wait and should not depend on who may sit in the presidential office after August 2010.”

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/getfile.cfm?id=4226&tid=6449&type=pdf&l=1

 

The Northern Distribution Network and the Modern Silk Road

CSIS, December 17, 2009

“As the U.S. presence in Afghanistan increases, so too will its demand for nonmilitary supplies. To accommodate this growth and address ongoing concerns with Pakistani supply lines, U.S. planners have opened the Northern Distribution Network (NDN), a commercially-based logistical corridor connecting Baltic and Black Sea ports with Afghanistan via Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.”

http://csis.org/files/publication/091217_Kuchins_NorthernDistNet_Web.pdf

 

DOD Information Assurance Policy Chart

ITAC via IntelFusion Blog, November 10, 2009

“This chart has been prepared by the IATAC and made available for public release. They ask that if you know of any policy updates that may not be properly reflected on the IA Policy Chart or any suggestions to improve the chart, to send suggestions, comments or questions about the chart to IATAC@dtic.mil. If you have questions about the content of any particular policy, please contact the POC for that policy directly.” (IntelFusion Blog)

http://iac.dtic.mil/iatac/download/ia_policychart.pdf

Any updates to this chart will be posted at: http://iac.dtic.mil/iatac/ia_policychart.html

 

The Rise of China’s Auto Industry and its Impact on the US Motor Vehicle Industry

Congressional Research Service via Federation of American Scientists/Secrecy News, November 16, 2009

“The automobile industry, a key sector in China’s industrialization and modernization efforts, has been developing rapidly since the 1990s. In recent years, China has become the world’s fastest growing automotive producer. Annual vehicle output has increased from less than 2 million vehicles in the late 1990s to 9.5 million in 2008. In terms of production volume in 2008, China has surpassed Korea, France, Germany, and the United States, trailing only Japan. A disproportionate share of China’s output was heavy vehicles in the 1990s. However, since 2000 China’s growth has been led by an increase in passenger cars, which now account for more than 65% of its vehicle production. China’s automobile industry has continued to expand despite the global economic downturn. From January to October 2009, more than 10 million vehicles were sold in China. If such growth continues, China is on its way to becoming world’s largest auto market.”

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R40924.pdf

 

A historical reflection on research evaluation studies, their recurrent themes and challenges

RAND Corp, December 2009

“This report presents a historical reflection on research evaluation studies, their recurrent themes and challenges, and their implications. It critically examines studies of how scientific research drives innovation and socioeconomic benefits.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/2009/RAND_TR789.pdf

 

Freeman Report, Vol 7 No 11-12

CSIS, December 17, 2009

“Cross-Strait relations have improved dramatically since President Ma took office in May 2008. The key to this development was Ma’s “no independence, no unification and no use of force” declaration that essentially relieved the PRC of its worst nightmare, i.e., Taiwan’s formal declaration of independence. In return, Beijing has implicitly accepted a diplomatic truce and allowed Taiwan to attain observer status in the WHO. More broadly, the PRC has moved forward expeditiously on the economic front opening up to direct links (now totaling 270 weekly flights), promoting Chinese tourism to Taiwan (now up to one million per year) and imports from Taiwan. While the Ma administration and the PRC are not scheduled to include discussion of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) in the formal SEF-ARATS talks in December, the two are expected to conclude an “early harvest” agreement by 2010 with Beijing agreeing to lower or eliminate tariffs on a significant list of Taiwan imports to compete with those from ASEAN countries.”

http://csis.org/files/publication/fr09n11-12.pdf

 

From Comrades to Classmates: Social Networks on the Russian Internet

Digitalicons.org, December, 2009

Focusing on Studies in Russian, Eurasian, and Central European New Media, Digitalicons.org has recently posted their second issue titled, From Comrades to Classmates: Social Networks on the Russian Internet.  This issue has a slew of great articles on Russia’s and Eurasia’s social networks.  Articles include: Social Networking on RuNet, Examining Political Group Membership on LiveJournal, Psychoanalytical Aspects of Self-Representation in Blogs, Tatar Groups in Vkontakte, Social Media and Ukrainian Presidential Elections, The Online Library and the Classic Literacy Cannon in Post-Soviet Russia, and Social Networks in an Un-Networked Society.

http://www.digitalicons.org/

Dec 11 – Dec 17, 2009

Algeria: SAM Site Overview

IMINT & Analysis Blog – Sean O’Connor, December 17, 2009

Sean O’Connor, an Air Defense and Strategic Warfare Subject Matter Expert, has created an GoogleEarth kmz file displaying Algeria’s Surface to Air Missile sites.  Mr. O’Connor claims that this project is still a work-in-progress due to the amount of sites he has to process, but so far so good!  It looks like he plans to later release another update with information on multiple nations!!  On his blog, he states:  “Starting with the next update, you'll now be able to click in the Places screen where it says ‘SAMS by country’ and get a menu titled ‘Fully interactive nations.’ There you'll see a list of all nations that are completed.”

Here is the kmz file he created:

http://imintandanalysis.googlepages.com/AlgeriaInteractive.kmz

 

Confronting al-Qaeda: Understanding the Threat in Afghanistan

Perspectives on Terrorism Journal, December, 2009

“Counter-terrorism policy should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the facts. A comprehensive survey of global neo-jihadi terrorism in the West shows that there were 60 plots over the past 20 years, perpetrated by 46 different networks. Of these only 14 successfully inflicted any casualty, and only two were perpetrated by al-Qaeda proper in the past 20 years. Over the past five years, global neo-jihadi and al-Qaeda terrorism in the West is in decline and the vast majority of the plots were perpetrated by independent homegrown groups, inspired by al- Qaeda but not linked to it or its allies. Since 9/11/01, none of the plots could be traced back to Afghanistan. Indeed, the detailed trial transcripts of the major plots in the West since 9/11/01 show that there was no al-Qaeda training in Afghanistan and that there is no Afghan among the perpetrators. There has been no global neo-jihadi terrorist casualty in the West in the past four years and none in the U.S. in the past eight years. This means that the U.S. military surge in Afghanistan will not help protect U.S. and Western homelands from a- Qaeda and its allies. The argument that the surge will prevent a return of al-Qaeda to Afghanistan to the same level of threat as prior to 2001 is based on many dubious assumptions. Counter-terrorism in the West has been very successful and the value added of an increased counter-insurgency campaign in Afghanistan is debatable.”

http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php?option=com_rokzine&view=article&id=92&Itemid=54

 

Sudan: Preventing Implosion

Crisis Group, December 17, 2009

”If the international community does not step in to ensure full implementation of Sudan’s North-South peace deal and shore up other failing centre-periphery agreements, the country risks a return to all-out civil war. The International Crisis Group examines the situation in the run-up to national elections due next year and the early 2011 referendum on self-determination in the South. It concludes that key elements of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended the two-decades-long civil war between North and South Sudan, have not been implemented. The failure to foster democratic transformation in the North has also undermined the chances for political settlement in Darfur and exacerbated tensions in other parts of the country.”

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/getfile.cfm?id=4216&tid=6438&l=1

 

START Follow-on Treaty Background

Brookings Institute, December 15, 2009

“U.S. and Russian negotiators are engaging in endgame negotiations to establish a new nuclear arms agreement that will replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which expired on December 5. Steven Pifer lays out the essential background for understanding the START treaty and the endgame negotiations now underway. ”

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/speeches/2009/1215_start_treaty_pifer/1215_start_treaty_pifer.pdf

 

United States Air Force Fleet Retention Trends: A Historical Analysis

RAND Corp., December, 2009

“This report provides historical contextual information on the ages of aircraft designs operated by the Air Force. Using reports published in 1998 by the Air Force Historical Agency, the authors identify the first year in which any active wing or squadron reported operating a specific aircraft design and the last year in which a given aircraft design was reported as being operated by any active wing or squadron. The greatest number of introductions of new designs and retirement of old designs occurred during World War II. … In contrast, more recent periods have seen longer-lasting designs and relatively fewer short-lived designs. Since the end of World War II and the formation of the Air Force as an independent military service, there has been a consistent trend for the Air Force to keep aircraft designs in operation for ever-longer periods.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/2009/RAND_TR740.pdf

 

Somali Piracy: The Next Iteration

Perspectives on Terrorism Journal, December, 2009

“The article describes the escalation of acts of maritime piracy emanating from the coast of Somalia, comparing them to the wave of aerial hijackings in the 1960s and 1970s in terms of demands, including political demands. The advantages for the pirates to gang up with land-based al-Shabaab terrorists are discussed and likely developments sketched.”

http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php?option=com_rokzine&view=article&id=93&Itemid=54

 

Calculated Terror

Foreign Policy Magazine, December 15, 2009

This is an excellent article written by Aaron Mannes and V.S. Subrahmanian that describes a new analytical method used to assess the behavior of HAMAS.   The method is based on historical data, mathematical statistics and weighting, and can be used to assess likely future actions/behaviors of known terrorist organizations (at least for organizations in which a computer model has been developed).  This analytical method is called “Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agents,” or SOMA.  I’m not certain how different SOMA is from analyses using the Bayes Theorem (aside from using some type of historical database, I’m not sure how the analysis differs – possibly different mathematical formulae?? – if anyone knows, please feel free to enlighten me). However, the authors describe SOMA as follows:

“Probabilistic logic programs (PLPs) have been proposed as a paradigm for probabilistic logical reasoning with no independence assumptions. In the Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agents project, we have developed a straightforward variant of PLPs called action-probabilistic logic programs (ap-programs) that can be used to model the behavior of certain socio-cultural-economic groups in different parts of the world. Such ap-programs contain rules that state things like “There is a 50 to 70% probability that group g will take action(s) a when condition C holds.”

In such applications, the problem of interest is that of finding the most probable action (or sets of actions) that the group being modeled might do in a given situation, which corresponds precisely to the problem of finding a “most probable world” (MPW). We have developed several exact and heuristic algorithms for more efficiently solving the MPW problem. Using these methods, the SOMA framework can forecast the most likely behavior of a group in a given situation.

Currently, we have automatically extracted ap-programs for 36 terror groups in the Middle East, looking at 41 strategic actions for each group, such as whether they engaged in bombings, kidnappings, who they target, etc.”

http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/pdfs/MOBILEINTERNET_12_15_09_V3.pdf

 

The Mobile Internet Report

Morgan Stanley, December, 2009

 “Our [Morgan Stanley] global technology and telecom analysts set out to do a deep dive into the rapidly changing mobile Internet market. We [Morgan Stanley] wanted to create a data-rich, theme-based framework for thinking about how the market may develop. We [Morgan Stanley] intend to expand and edit the framework as the market evolves. A lot has changed since we [Morgan Stanley] published “The Internet Report” in 1995 on the web.
We [Morgan Stanley] decided to create The Mobile Internet Report largely in PowerPoint and publish it on the web, expecting that bits and pieces of it will be cut / pasted / redistributed and debated / dismissed / lauded. Our [Morgan Stanley] goal is to get our thoughts and data into the conversation about what may be the biggest technology trend ever, one that may help make us all more informed in ways that are unique to the web circa 2009, and beyond.”

http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/pdfs/MOBILEINTERNET_12_15_09_V3.pdf

 

Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release [Summary] with Projections to 2035

Energy Information Administration, December 14, 2009

“The Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (AEO2010 ) reference case released today by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) presents updated projections for U.S. energy consumption and production through 2035.”

http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/speeches/newell121409.pdf

Reference Case: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/appa.pdf  

 

Death in the United States: 2007

National Center for Health Statistics, December, 2009

 “Mortality in the United States, as summarized by the age-adjusted death rate-a measure that accounts for changes in the age distribution of the population-has declined in an almost uninterrupted manner since 1960. The death rate is now 43 percent lower than in 1960 (declining from 1,339.2 per 100,000 standard population in 1960 to 760.3 in 2007). However, not all Americans have benefited equally from this decline. While there is a decline in mortality among all groups, longstanding gaps only recently began to diminish. Much of the recent improvements in death rates and life expectancy for all population groups can be attributed to ongoing reductions in death rates from major causes of death such as heart disease, cancer, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and stroke.”

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db26.pdf

 

Report and Recommendations of the Presidential Task Force on Controlled Unclassified Information

Presidential Task Force on Controlled Unclassified Information, December 15, 2009

“The President's Memorandum of May 27, 2009 on Classified Information and Controlled Unclassified Information, directed a Task Force, led by the Secretary of Homeland Security and the Attorney General, to review the Controlled Unclassified Information (“CUI”) Framework established in 2008 for the management of Sensitive but Unclassified (“SBU”) terrorism-related information. The Task Force undertook a 90-day study of the CUI Framework, the current regimes for managing SBU information in the Executive Branch, and, by extension, the sharing of that information with our non-federal information-sharing partners.”

http://www.fas.org/sgp/cui/taskforce.pdf

 

Iraq: Creating a Strategic Partnership

CSIS, December 15, 2009

“The study shows that Iraq faces serious immediate problems in each area, but all of the above challenges are “structural” in the sense that they require major changes in Iraq’s present politics, governance, security structure, and economy that will take years to accomplish. This does not mean Iraq cannot make progress much earlier, and it already has in many areas. The scale of each challenge, however, is too great for such progress to quickly reach the point of lasting success. History takes time in Iraq, as it does everywhere else in the world.”

http://csis.org/files/publication/091215_consolidated.manuscript.pdf

 

Iran Sanctions: Options, Opportunities, and Consequences

RAND Corp., December 15, 2009

“Testimony presented before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs on December 15, 2009.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/2009/RAND_CT337.pdf

 

Understanding Terrorist Motivations

RAND Corp., December 15, 2009

“Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing and Terrorism Risk Assessment on December 15, 2009.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/2009/RAND_CT338.pdf

 

No. 69: Internet Blogs

ISN Publication, December 14, 2009

“This publication addresses the Russian internet and social media landscape arguing that it has features that are specific to Russia and distinct from counterparts in the US or elsewhere. It specifically analyzes the impact of the Russian blogosphere on the Russian political system. It concludes that the way most Russians use the internet reflects their lack of interest in political topics.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110555/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/6BBE9D70-F06D-4D5C-95A1-3F44A00DDD4C/en/Russian_Analytical_Digest_69.pdf

 

Central Asia: Islamists in Prison

Crisis Group, December 15, 2009

“Prisons in Central Asia are becoming hothouses for the growth of militant Islamism, threatening long-term stability in the region. There is a rising number and political significance of Islamists in state detention. It argues that the governments’ tough policy on political Islam only increases the risk of violent militancy. The failure to differentiate between armed Islamist groups and those who oppose the state by political means will deepen the divide between the observant Muslim population and central governments – a particularly dangerous development at a time when the risk of armed Islamic insurgency is growing.”

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/getfile.cfm?id=4212&tid=6435&l=1

 

NATO’s Role in the 21 Century and its Potential Contribution for Peace and Stability in the Asia-Pacific Region

ISN Publication, December 15, 2009

“This paper reflects opportunities and chances, but also risks, threats and dangers that might influence strategic stability in regards to NATO defining its primary objectives. The author encourages the members of the Alliance to work on both their cooperation and dialogue as well as their willingness and capacity for collective defense and crisis response operations as a key orientation for the 21st century. He therefore advocates that NATO should become "more capable, more coherent and more active" in order to cope with the challenges ahead.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110553/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/5AC6EC83-1537-4852-BA96-7C5F7C9C2690/en/2009-12_NATOs_Role_21Century.pdf

 

Reshuffling the Cards (I): Syria’s Evolving Strategy

Crisis Group, December 14, 2009

“Syria’s foreign policy has long been a contradictory mix of militancy and pragmatism, but new dynamics create opportunities for the U.S. if it does more to deepen its engagement. This Crisis Group report examines changes in Damascus’s outlook and concludes that further shifts will hinge on the regime’s assessment of the costs of its choices, both in terms of domestic stability and regional standing. That, in turn, largely will depend on what other parties do. This is the first part of a Crisis Group report that analyses changes in Syria’s regional approach and prospects for improved relations with Washington. The second part with further details will be published shortly.”

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/getfile.cfm?id=4211&tid=6434&type=pdf&l=1

 

Reshuffling the Cards (II): Syria’s Evolving Strategy

Crisis Group, December 16, 2009

“U.S. diplomatic engagement with Syria risks losing momentum if it fails to build upon several potentially promising changes in Damascus's policy. This report completes a two-part International Crisis Group series published this week on that key Middle Eastern country’s evolving strategy, examining the motives for new directions in foreign policy since 2008 that have enabled Damascus to take the initiative after years of isolation. Paradoxically, little has happened in relations with Washington since President Obama took office, despite hopes generated by his election.”

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/getfile.cfm?id=4215&tid=6437&type=pdf&l=1

 

The Relevance of the Singapore Armed Forces: A Journey Into Singaporeaness

ISN Publication, December 14, 2009

“This commentary assesses the existence of the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) as a national institution. The author discusses the relevancy of the SAF for Singapore's 'Generation Y,' noting that the SAF must be able to convince its Generation Y servicemen of the rationale of military service. He then examines the relationship between the SAF, identity and citizenship.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110543/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/4AA8A5DA-8891-44ED-BD01-1DCD59B699F9/en/RSIS1252009.pdf

 

Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review 2009

Office of the Director of National Intelligence via Noah Shachtman’s “Danger Room” Blog, December 14, 2009 (report created in Jan 2009)

“The Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review (QICR) 2009 is a scenario-based strategic planning activity that looks out to the year 2025 and considers alternative futures (i.e., “scenarios”), missions the Intelligence Community (IC) might be called on to perform, and the operating principles and capabilities required to fulfill those missions. In short, QICR provides an opportunity to assess how the IC can best position itself to address future challenges. The insights gleaned are intended to help shape the next National Intelligence Strategy and other planning and capability guidance documents.”

http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/dangerroom/2009/12/qicr-scenarios.pdf

 

Privacy: An Overview of Federal Statutes Governing Wiretapping and Electronic Eavesdropping

Congressional Research Service, December 3, 2009

“This report provides an overview of federal law governing wiretapping and electronic eavesdropping. It also appends citations to state law in the area and contains a bibliography of legal commentary as well as the text of the Electronic Communications Privacy Act (ECPA) and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA).”

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/intel/98-326.pdf

 

The Pitfalls of Joint Warfare: Conjoined or Separated?

ISN Publication, December 09, 2009

“This commentary cautions that the joint operations principle should not be adopted at the expense of single service competencies. Following a brief history of joint warfare, the author emphasizes the need for commanders to be sensitized to the possibilities of joint warfare. He further stresses that individual service competency remains the foundation for successful joint operations.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110519/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/D4444A2C-6300-4707-AAF9-6C981BF8DEE7/en/RSIS1232009.pdf

 

A Study Into the Size of the World's Intelligence Industry

Chris Hippner – Masters Thesis, October 2009

“This thesis determines the approximate size of the world’s intelligence industry in quantitative terms. It reviews existing literature which describes, in qualitative terms, various themes found about intelligence agencies around the world. The thesis provides a quantitative method to estimate unknown intelligence spending and personnel. The study concludes that the world’s intelligence industry spends approximately 106 billion United States Dollars, and employs about one million people. Furthermore, the hypothesized direct correlation between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and intelligence spending may exist, but the research does not strongly support the assertion. It is apparent that GDP is a factor when it comes to intelligence spending, but it does not seem to be the primary component.”

http://www.scribd.com/doc/23958185/A-Study-Into-the-Size-of-the-World-s-Intelligence-Industry

 

Political Realignment in Tokyo: Impact on India-Japan Relations

ISN Publication, December 08, 2009

“This commentary assesses the state of India-Japan relations following the inauguration of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government in September 2009. The author states that while relations seem to be in a state of uncertainty, they are likely to improve and strengthen. The DPJ needs to elaborate on its policy toward India, and the Indian government needs to give more substance to its 'Look East' policy.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110518/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/5C1DB1BC-1B49-4FB8-A293-E00158E93F2E/en/RSIS1222009.pdf

 

US Arms Sales: Agreements with and Deliveries to Major Clients, 2001-2008

Congressional Research Service, December 2, 2009

 “This report provides background data on United States arms sales agreements with and deliveries to its major purchasers during calendar years 2001-2008, made through the U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program. In a series of data tables, it lists the total dollar values of U.S. government to-government arms sales agreements with its top five purchasers, and the total dollar values of U.S. arms deliveries to those purchasers, in five specific regions of the world for three specific periods: 2001-2004, 2005-2008, and 2008 alone. In addition, the report provides data tables listing the total dollar values of U.S. government-to-government arms agreements with and deliveries to its top 10 purchasers worldwide for the periods 2001-2004, 2005-2008, and for 2008 alone. This report is prepared in conjunction with CRS Report R40796, Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 2001-2008, by Richard F. Grimmett.”

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/intel/98-326.pdf

 

War in Afghanistan: Strategy, Military Operations, and Issues for Congress

Congressional Research Service, December 3, 2009

“The U.S. government faces key strategic and operational decisions about its further engagement in the war in Afghanistan. These may include clarifying U.S. national interests in Afghanistan and the region; defining clear strategic objectives based on those interests; determining which diplomatic, economic, and military approaches to adopt, and what resources to commit to support those approaches; prioritizing “Afghanistan” versus other national security imperatives; and helping marshal a coordinated application of international efforts. Avenues available to Congress for exercising oversight include authorizing and appropriating funding for U.S. efforts in Afghanistan and the region; shaping policy through directive legislation; holding oversight hearings to assess policy execution; and adjusting Administration reporting requirements. This report provides analysis of current developments and future options concerning the war in Afghanistan. It will be updated as events warrant.”

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R40156.pdf

 

Convertible Weapons in the Western Balkans

ISN Publication, December 08, 2009

“This report is the result of a comparative study to determine the extent to which convertible weapons are addressed in existing legislation in the Western Balkans and the extent to which this corresponds with new EU regulations. It contains case studies of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo. It finds that many countries in the region have been affected by the illicit trafficking, possession and use of convertible weapons.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110523/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/71C64426-693B-478D-92F0-9FD51BD9F1B0/en/2009-12_Convertible-Weapons.pdf

 

Law Enforcement Officer Fatality Statistics – 2009 Preliminary Statistics

beSpecific, December 2009

Early statistics for law enforcement officer fatalities.

http://www.nleomf.org/facts/officer-fatalities-data/

 

The ASEAN Regional Forum and Preventative Diplomacy

ISN Publication, December 7, 2009

“This publication examines the reasons why the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has not managed to engage in preventative diplomacy (PD) through the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). The authors argue that the ARF has evolved into a highly formal forum which has inhibited the adoption of a PD agenda. They review the concept and practice of PD by the UN and other actors during and post-Cold War, and critically assess the ARF with regards to its role in the PD.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110433/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/ADCBF381-C047-4D46-9AA9-2825C4AAC09D/en/WP189.pdf

 

Europe’s Muslims

DataVis, December 13, 2009

This map visualization depicts Europe’s Muslim Population.  The map includes a detailed close-up of England’s Muslim population, outlining predominant Muslim areas both within London and outside of London.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_6RbZKweOfIY/Sn82BoyT6QI/AAAAAAAAAMU/IpNivILe1_0/s1600-h/Muslim.jpg

 

2010 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast

Tropical Meteorology Project — Colorado State University, December 9, 2009

“Information obtained through November 2009 indicates that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be somewhat more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that activity will return to levels more typical of years during an active era, such as what we have experienced since 1995. We expect to see approximately 11-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes occur during the 2010 hurricane season. These numbers are based on the average of our statistical model, our analog model and qualitative adjustments and insights. At this point, there is too much uncertainty in what large-scale parameters will be in August-October of next year to issue a forecast for specific numbers. However, we do feel that we are in a favorable position for issuing an early December forecast this year, since we believe the odds of a multi-year El Nino event are quite small. Because we are predicting an above-average hurricane season in 2010, the probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above the long-period average. This forecast is based on a new extended-range early December statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data. The influences of El Nino conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. We expect to see the moderate to strong El Nino event that is currently in progress diminish by the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.”

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2009/dec2009/dec2009.pdf

 

Europe’s Security Policy

ISN Publication, December 10, 2009

“This paper assesses the EU's security policy, focusing on the issue of conflict prevention and highlighting the need for a dedicated process of change in the EU's analysis of challenges, structures, strategy and capabilities. It discusses the need for EU internal security as well as the question of how to project stability beyond the borders of the EU. The author argues that a comprehensive, integrated approach is necessary to deal with the security challenges of the 21st century.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110444/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/908A9A16-9139-4837-9732-57B63C46E280/en/2009-12-10_Europes_Security_Policy.pdf

 

US Aerospace Manufacturing: Industry Overview and Prospects

Congressional Research Service, December 3, 2009

“Aircraft and automobile manufacturing are considered by many to be the technological backbones of the U.S. manufacturing base. As the Obama Administration and Congress debate how to strengthen American manufacturing, aerospace is likely to receive considerable attention. Like other manufacturing industries, the worldwide recession has affected aerospace manufacturing, with both the defense and commercial sides of the industry facing difficult business conditions for the near and medium term. This report primarily provides a snapshot of the U.S. commercial (non-defense, non-space) aerospace manufacturing industry and a discussion of major trends affecting the future of this industry.”

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40967.pdf

 

A Journalist’s Guide to Sexual and Reproductive Health in East Africa

Population Reference Bureau, November 2009

“This PRB media guide brings together the latest available data on sexual and reproductive health for five East African countries—Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda—to help journalists educate the public and policymakers on these issues.  Sexual and reproductive health encompasses health and well-being in matters related to sexual relations, pregnancies, and births. It deals with the most intimate and private aspects of people's lives, which can be difficult to write about and discuss publicly. As a result, the public misunderstands many sexual and reproductive health matters. In addition, cultural sensitivities and taboos surrounding sexuality often prevent people from seeking information and care and preclude governments from addressing the issues.”

http://www.prb.org/pdf09/eastafricamedia.pdf  

 

A Core Set of Global Environmental Indicators

Visual Think Map, October 19, 2009

“This publication examines the reasons why the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has not managed to engage in preventative diplomacy (PD) through the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). The authors argue that the ARF has evolved into a highly formal forum which has inhibited the adoption of a PD agenda. They review the concept and practice of PD by the UN and other actors during and post-Cold War, and critically assess the ARF with regards to its role in the PD.”

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2752/4027830746_91957ccb4f_b_d.jpg