Algeria: SAM Site Overview
IMINT & Analysis Blog – Sean O’Connor, December 17, 2009
Sean O’Connor, an Air Defense and Strategic Warfare Subject Matter Expert, has created an GoogleEarth kmz file displaying Algeria’s Surface to Air Missile sites. Mr. O’Connor claims that this project is still a work-in-progress due to the amount of sites he has to process, but so far so good! It looks like he plans to later release another update with information on multiple nations!! On his blog, he states: “Starting with the next update, you'll now be able to click in the Places screen where it says ‘SAMS by country’ and get a menu titled ‘Fully interactive nations.’ There you'll see a list of all nations that are completed.”
Here is the kmz file he created:
Confronting al-Qaeda: Understanding the Threat in Afghanistan
Perspectives on Terrorism Journal, December, 2009
“Counter-terrorism policy should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the facts. A comprehensive survey of global neo-jihadi terrorism in the West shows that there were 60 plots over the past 20 years, perpetrated by 46 different networks. Of these only 14 successfully inflicted any casualty, and only two were perpetrated by al-Qaeda proper in the past 20 years. Over the past five years, global neo-jihadi and al-Qaeda terrorism in the West is in decline and the vast majority of the plots were perpetrated by independent homegrown groups, inspired by al- Qaeda but not linked to it or its allies. Since 9/11/01, none of the plots could be traced back to Afghanistan. Indeed, the detailed trial transcripts of the major plots in the West since 9/11/01 show that there was no al-Qaeda training in Afghanistan and that there is no Afghan among the perpetrators. There has been no global neo-jihadi terrorist casualty in the West in the past four years and none in the U.S. in the past eight years. This means that the U.S. military surge in Afghanistan will not help protect U.S. and Western homelands from a- Qaeda and its allies. The argument that the surge will prevent a return of al-Qaeda to Afghanistan to the same level of threat as prior to 2001 is based on many dubious assumptions. Counter-terrorism in the West has been very successful and the value added of an increased counter-insurgency campaign in Afghanistan is debatable.”
Sudan: Preventing Implosion
Crisis Group, December 17, 2009
”If the international community does not step in to ensure full implementation of Sudan’s North-South peace deal and shore up other failing centre-periphery agreements, the country risks a return to all-out civil war. The International Crisis Group examines the situation in the run-up to national elections due next year and the early 2011 referendum on self-determination in the South. It concludes that key elements of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended the two-decades-long civil war between North and South Sudan, have not been implemented. The failure to foster democratic transformation in the North has also undermined the chances for political settlement in Darfur and exacerbated tensions in other parts of the country.”
START Follow-on Treaty Background
Brookings Institute, December 15, 2009
“U.S. and Russian negotiators are engaging in endgame negotiations to establish a new nuclear arms agreement that will replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which expired on December 5. Steven Pifer lays out the essential background for understanding the START treaty and the endgame negotiations now underway. ”
United States Air Force Fleet Retention Trends: A Historical Analysis
RAND Corp., December, 2009
“This report provides historical contextual information on the ages of aircraft designs operated by the Air Force. Using reports published in 1998 by the Air Force Historical Agency, the authors identify the first year in which any active wing or squadron reported operating a specific aircraft design and the last year in which a given aircraft design was reported as being operated by any active wing or squadron. The greatest number of introductions of new designs and retirement of old designs occurred during World War II. … In contrast, more recent periods have seen longer-lasting designs and relatively fewer short-lived designs. Since the end of World War II and the formation of the Air Force as an independent military service, there has been a consistent trend for the Air Force to keep aircraft designs in operation for ever-longer periods.”
Somali Piracy: The Next Iteration
Perspectives on Terrorism Journal, December, 2009
“The article describes the escalation of acts of maritime piracy emanating from the coast of Somalia, comparing them to the wave of aerial hijackings in the 1960s and 1970s in terms of demands, including political demands. The advantages for the pirates to gang up with land-based al-Shabaab terrorists are discussed and likely developments sketched.”
Calculated Terror
Foreign Policy Magazine, December 15, 2009
This is an excellent article written by Aaron Mannes and V.S. Subrahmanian that describes a new analytical method used to assess the behavior of HAMAS. The method is based on historical data, mathematical statistics and weighting, and can be used to assess likely future actions/behaviors of known terrorist organizations (at least for organizations in which a computer model has been developed). This analytical method is called “Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agents,” or SOMA. I’m not certain how different SOMA is from analyses using the Bayes Theorem (aside from using some type of historical database, I’m not sure how the analysis differs – possibly different mathematical formulae?? – if anyone knows, please feel free to enlighten me). However, the authors describe SOMA as follows:
“Probabilistic logic programs (PLPs) have been proposed as a paradigm for probabilistic logical reasoning with no independence assumptions. In the Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agents project, we have developed a straightforward variant of PLPs called action-probabilistic logic programs (ap-programs) that can be used to model the behavior of certain socio-cultural-economic groups in different parts of the world. Such ap-programs contain rules that state things like “There is a 50 to 70% probability that group g will take action(s) a when condition C holds.”
In such applications, the problem of interest is that of finding the most probable action (or sets of actions) that the group being modeled might do in a given situation, which corresponds precisely to the problem of finding a “most probable world” (MPW). We have developed several exact and heuristic algorithms for more efficiently solving the MPW problem. Using these methods, the SOMA framework can forecast the most likely behavior of a group in a given situation.
Currently, we have automatically extracted ap-programs for 36 terror groups in the Middle East, looking at 41 strategic actions for each group, such as whether they engaged in bombings, kidnappings, who they target, etc.”
The Mobile Internet Report
Morgan Stanley, December, 2009
“Our [Morgan Stanley] global technology and telecom analysts set out to do a deep dive into the rapidly changing mobile Internet market. We [Morgan Stanley] wanted to create a data-rich, theme-based framework for thinking about how the market may develop. We [Morgan Stanley] intend to expand and edit the framework as the market evolves. A lot has changed since we [Morgan Stanley] published “The Internet Report” in 1995 on the web.
We [Morgan Stanley] decided to create The Mobile Internet Report largely in PowerPoint and publish it on the web, expecting that bits and pieces of it will be cut / pasted / redistributed and debated / dismissed / lauded. Our [Morgan Stanley] goal is to get our thoughts and data into the conversation about what may be the biggest technology trend ever, one that may help make us all more informed in ways that are unique to the web circa 2009, and beyond.”
Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release [Summary] with Projections to 2035
Energy Information Administration, December 14, 2009
“The Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (AEO2010 ) reference case released today by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) presents updated projections for U.S. energy consumption and production through 2035.”
Death in the United States: 2007
National Center for Health Statistics, December, 2009
“Mortality in the United States, as summarized by the age-adjusted death rate-a measure that accounts for changes in the age distribution of the population-has declined in an almost uninterrupted manner since 1960. The death rate is now 43 percent lower than in 1960 (declining from 1,339.2 per 100,000 standard population in 1960 to 760.3 in 2007). However, not all Americans have benefited equally from this decline. While there is a decline in mortality among all groups, longstanding gaps only recently began to diminish. Much of the recent improvements in death rates and life expectancy for all population groups can be attributed to ongoing reductions in death rates from major causes of death such as heart disease, cancer, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and stroke.”
Report and Recommendations of the Presidential Task Force on Controlled Unclassified Information
Presidential Task Force on Controlled Unclassified Information, December 15, 2009
“The President's Memorandum of May 27, 2009 on Classified Information and Controlled Unclassified Information, directed a Task Force, led by the Secretary of Homeland Security and the Attorney General, to review the Controlled Unclassified Information (“CUI”) Framework established in 2008 for the management of Sensitive but Unclassified (“SBU”) terrorism-related information. The Task Force undertook a 90-day study of the CUI Framework, the current regimes for managing SBU information in the Executive Branch, and, by extension, the sharing of that information with our non-federal information-sharing partners.”
Iraq: Creating a Strategic Partnership
CSIS, December 15, 2009
“The study shows that Iraq faces serious immediate problems in each area, but all of the above challenges are “structural” in the sense that they require major changes in Iraq’s present politics, governance, security structure, and economy that will take years to accomplish. This does not mean Iraq cannot make progress much earlier, and it already has in many areas. The scale of each challenge, however, is too great for such progress to quickly reach the point of lasting success. History takes time in Iraq, as it does everywhere else in the world.”
Iran Sanctions: Options, Opportunities, and Consequences
RAND Corp., December 15, 2009
“Testimony presented before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs on December 15, 2009.”
Understanding Terrorist Motivations
RAND Corp., December 15, 2009
“Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing and Terrorism Risk Assessment on December 15, 2009.”
No. 69: Internet Blogs
ISN Publication, December 14, 2009
“This publication addresses the Russian internet and social media landscape arguing that it has features that are specific to Russia and distinct from counterparts in the US or elsewhere. It specifically analyzes the impact of the Russian blogosphere on the Russian political system. It concludes that the way most Russians use the internet reflects their lack of interest in political topics.”
Central Asia: Islamists in Prison
Crisis Group, December 15, 2009
“Prisons in Central Asia are becoming hothouses for the growth of militant Islamism, threatening long-term stability in the region. There is a rising number and political significance of Islamists in state detention. It argues that the governments’ tough policy on political Islam only increases the risk of violent militancy. The failure to differentiate between armed Islamist groups and those who oppose the state by political means will deepen the divide between the observant Muslim population and central governments – a particularly dangerous development at a time when the risk of armed Islamic insurgency is growing.”
NATO’s Role in the 21 Century and its Potential Contribution for Peace and Stability in the Asia-Pacific Region
ISN Publication, December 15, 2009
“This paper reflects opportunities and chances, but also risks, threats and dangers that might influence strategic stability in regards to NATO defining its primary objectives. The author encourages the members of the Alliance to work on both their cooperation and dialogue as well as their willingness and capacity for collective defense and crisis response operations as a key orientation for the 21st century. He therefore advocates that NATO should become "more capable, more coherent and more active" in order to cope with the challenges ahead.”
Reshuffling the Cards (I): Syria’s Evolving Strategy
Crisis Group, December 14, 2009
“Syria’s foreign policy has long been a contradictory mix of militancy and pragmatism, but new dynamics create opportunities for the U.S. if it does more to deepen its engagement. This Crisis Group report examines changes in Damascus’s outlook and concludes that further shifts will hinge on the regime’s assessment of the costs of its choices, both in terms of domestic stability and regional standing. That, in turn, largely will depend on what other parties do. This is the first part of a Crisis Group report that analyses changes in Syria’s regional approach and prospects for improved relations with Washington. The second part with further details will be published shortly.”
Reshuffling the Cards (II): Syria’s Evolving Strategy
Crisis Group, December 16, 2009
“U.S. diplomatic engagement with Syria risks losing momentum if it fails to build upon several potentially promising changes in Damascus's policy. This report completes a two-part International Crisis Group series published this week on that key Middle Eastern country’s evolving strategy, examining the motives for new directions in foreign policy since 2008 that have enabled Damascus to take the initiative after years of isolation. Paradoxically, little has happened in relations with Washington since President Obama took office, despite hopes generated by his election.”
The Relevance of the Singapore Armed Forces: A Journey Into Singaporeaness
ISN Publication, December 14, 2009
“This commentary assesses the existence of the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) as a national institution. The author discusses the relevancy of the SAF for Singapore's 'Generation Y,' noting that the SAF must be able to convince its Generation Y servicemen of the rationale of military service. He then examines the relationship between the SAF, identity and citizenship.”
Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review 2009
Office of the Director of National Intelligence via Noah Shachtman’s “Danger Room” Blog, December 14, 2009 (report created in Jan 2009)
“The Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review (QICR) 2009 is a scenario-based strategic planning activity that looks out to the year 2025 and considers alternative futures (i.e., “scenarios”), missions the Intelligence Community (IC) might be called on to perform, and the operating principles and capabilities required to fulfill those missions. In short, QICR provides an opportunity to assess how the IC can best position itself to address future challenges. The insights gleaned are intended to help shape the next National Intelligence Strategy and other planning and capability guidance documents.”
Privacy: An Overview of Federal Statutes Governing Wiretapping and Electronic Eavesdropping
Congressional Research Service, December 3, 2009
“This report provides an overview of federal law governing wiretapping and electronic eavesdropping. It also appends citations to state law in the area and contains a bibliography of legal commentary as well as the text of the Electronic Communications Privacy Act (ECPA) and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA).”
The Pitfalls of Joint Warfare: Conjoined or Separated?
ISN Publication, December 09, 2009
“This commentary cautions that the joint operations principle should not be adopted at the expense of single service competencies. Following a brief history of joint warfare, the author emphasizes the need for commanders to be sensitized to the possibilities of joint warfare. He further stresses that individual service competency remains the foundation for successful joint operations.”
A Study Into the Size of the World's Intelligence Industry
Chris Hippner – Masters Thesis, October 2009
“This thesis determines the approximate size of the world’s intelligence industry in quantitative terms. It reviews existing literature which describes, in qualitative terms, various themes found about intelligence agencies around the world. The thesis provides a quantitative method to estimate unknown intelligence spending and personnel. The study concludes that the world’s intelligence industry spends approximately 106 billion United States Dollars, and employs about one million people. Furthermore, the hypothesized direct correlation between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and intelligence spending may exist, but the research does not strongly support the assertion. It is apparent that GDP is a factor when it comes to intelligence spending, but it does not seem to be the primary component.”
Political Realignment in Tokyo: Impact on India-Japan Relations
ISN Publication, December 08, 2009
“This commentary assesses the state of India-Japan relations following the inauguration of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government in September 2009. The author states that while relations seem to be in a state of uncertainty, they are likely to improve and strengthen. The DPJ needs to elaborate on its policy toward India, and the Indian government needs to give more substance to its 'Look East' policy.”
US Arms Sales: Agreements with and Deliveries to Major Clients, 2001-2008
Congressional Research Service, December 2, 2009
“This report provides background data on United States arms sales agreements with and deliveries to its major purchasers during calendar years 2001-2008, made through the U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program. In a series of data tables, it lists the total dollar values of U.S. government to-government arms sales agreements with its top five purchasers, and the total dollar values of U.S. arms deliveries to those purchasers, in five specific regions of the world for three specific periods: 2001-2004, 2005-2008, and 2008 alone. In addition, the report provides data tables listing the total dollar values of U.S. government-to-government arms agreements with and deliveries to its top 10 purchasers worldwide for the periods 2001-2004, 2005-2008, and for 2008 alone. This report is prepared in conjunction with CRS Report R40796, Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 2001-2008, by Richard F. Grimmett.”
War in Afghanistan: Strategy, Military Operations, and Issues for Congress
Congressional Research Service, December 3, 2009
“The U.S. government faces key strategic and operational decisions about its further engagement in the war in Afghanistan. These may include clarifying U.S. national interests in Afghanistan and the region; defining clear strategic objectives based on those interests; determining which diplomatic, economic, and military approaches to adopt, and what resources to commit to support those approaches; prioritizing “Afghanistan” versus other national security imperatives; and helping marshal a coordinated application of international efforts. Avenues available to Congress for exercising oversight include authorizing and appropriating funding for U.S. efforts in Afghanistan and the region; shaping policy through directive legislation; holding oversight hearings to assess policy execution; and adjusting Administration reporting requirements. This report provides analysis of current developments and future options concerning the war in Afghanistan. It will be updated as events warrant.”
Convertible Weapons in the Western Balkans
ISN Publication, December 08, 2009
“This report is the result of a comparative study to determine the extent to which convertible weapons are addressed in existing legislation in the Western Balkans and the extent to which this corresponds with new EU regulations. It contains case studies of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo. It finds that many countries in the region have been affected by the illicit trafficking, possession and use of convertible weapons.”
Law Enforcement Officer Fatality Statistics – 2009 Preliminary Statistics
beSpecific, December 2009
Early statistics for law enforcement officer fatalities.
The ASEAN Regional Forum and Preventative Diplomacy
ISN Publication, December 7, 2009
“This publication examines the reasons why the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has not managed to engage in preventative diplomacy (PD) through the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). The authors argue that the ARF has evolved into a highly formal forum which has inhibited the adoption of a PD agenda. They review the concept and practice of PD by the UN and other actors during and post-Cold War, and critically assess the ARF with regards to its role in the PD.”
Europe’s Muslims
DataVis, December 13, 2009
This map visualization depicts Europe’s Muslim Population. The map includes a detailed close-up of England’s Muslim population, outlining predominant Muslim areas both within London and outside of London.
2010 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast
Tropical Meteorology Project — Colorado State University, December 9, 2009
“Information obtained through November 2009 indicates that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be somewhat more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that activity will return to levels more typical of years during an active era, such as what we have experienced since 1995. We expect to see approximately 11-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes occur during the 2010 hurricane season. These numbers are based on the average of our statistical model, our analog model and qualitative adjustments and insights. At this point, there is too much uncertainty in what large-scale parameters will be in August-October of next year to issue a forecast for specific numbers. However, we do feel that we are in a favorable position for issuing an early December forecast this year, since we believe the odds of a multi-year El Nino event are quite small. Because we are predicting an above-average hurricane season in 2010, the probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above the long-period average. This forecast is based on a new extended-range early December statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data. The influences of El Nino conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. We expect to see the moderate to strong El Nino event that is currently in progress diminish by the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.”
Europe’s Security Policy
ISN Publication, December 10, 2009
“This paper assesses the EU's security policy, focusing on the issue of conflict prevention and highlighting the need for a dedicated process of change in the EU's analysis of challenges, structures, strategy and capabilities. It discusses the need for EU internal security as well as the question of how to project stability beyond the borders of the EU. The author argues that a comprehensive, integrated approach is necessary to deal with the security challenges of the 21st century.”
US Aerospace Manufacturing: Industry Overview and Prospects
Congressional Research Service, December 3, 2009
“Aircraft and automobile manufacturing are considered by many to be the technological backbones of the U.S. manufacturing base. As the Obama Administration and Congress debate how to strengthen American manufacturing, aerospace is likely to receive considerable attention. Like other manufacturing industries, the worldwide recession has affected aerospace manufacturing, with both the defense and commercial sides of the industry facing difficult business conditions for the near and medium term. This report primarily provides a snapshot of the U.S. commercial (non-defense, non-space) aerospace manufacturing industry and a discussion of major trends affecting the future of this industry.”
A Journalist’s Guide to Sexual and Reproductive Health in East Africa
Population Reference Bureau, November 2009
“This PRB media guide brings together the latest available data on sexual and reproductive health for five East African countries—Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda—to help journalists educate the public and policymakers on these issues. Sexual and reproductive health encompasses health and well-being in matters related to sexual relations, pregnancies, and births. It deals with the most intimate and private aspects of people's lives, which can be difficult to write about and discuss publicly. As a result, the public misunderstands many sexual and reproductive health matters. In addition, cultural sensitivities and taboos surrounding sexuality often prevent people from seeking information and care and preclude governments from addressing the issues.”
A Core Set of Global Environmental Indicators
Visual Think Map, October 19, 2009
“This publication examines the reasons why the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has not managed to engage in preventative diplomacy (PD) through the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). The authors argue that the ARF has evolved into a highly formal forum which has inhibited the adoption of a PD agenda. They review the concept and practice of PD by the UN and other actors during and post-Cold War, and critically assess the ARF with regards to its role in the PD.”
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