OPEN (re)SOURCES

The Economics and Politics of China's Exchange Rate Adjustment

2010-01-06T08:41:00.000-05:00

ISN Publication, December 28, 2009
"This publication analyzes the on-going revaluation process of China's currency. The author argues that this adjustment depends largely on the dynamics of China's labor and financial market. He also states that South Asia is generally not hurt, and in fact may gain, from an undervalued Chinese currency."
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110879/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/7CFF2741-B56A-43BB-A74C-24776D7A59EB/en/89.pdf

Fixing Intel: A Blueprint for Making Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan

2010-01-05T13:41:00.000-05:00

Center for a New American Security, January 2010
"This paper, written by the senior intelligence officer in

Afghanistan

and by a company-grade officer and a senior executive with the Defense Intelligence Agency, critically examines the relevance of the

U.S.

intelligence community to the counterinsurgency strategy in

Afghanistan

. Based on discussions with hundreds of people inside and outside the intelligence community, it recommends sweeping changes to the way the intelligence community thinks about itself – from a focus on the enemy to a focus on the people of

Afghanistan

. The paper argues that because the

United States

has focused the overwhelming majority of collection efforts and analytical brainpower on insurgent groups, our intelligence apparatus still finds itself unable to answer fundamental questions about the environment in which we operate and the people we are trying to protect and persuade."
http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/AfghanIntel_Flynn_Jan2010_code507_voices.pdf

Middle East Notes and Comment: Waiting for the Deluge

2010-01-05T13:03:00.000-05:00

CSIS, December 15, 2009
"In a region that already has enough conflicts, another one is brewing, and it comes from a surprising source: the Nile. The river that witnessed history from the pharaohs through the Bible and on to the nationalist revolution of 1952 seems poised to enter a new phase, and there may not be enough water to go around."
http://csis.org/files/publication/1209_MENC.pdf

Central Asia: Migrants and the Economic Crisis

2010-01-05T12:20:00.000-05:00

Crisis Group, January 5, 2010
"If Central Asian countries want to survive as viable independent states and avoid political and social instability in the region, they need to make urgent reforms in the labour sector. The International Crisis Group examines the impact of the global financial crisis on migration from three Central Asian countries: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The report warns that the lumpenisation of Central Asian societies will continue, as qualified, educated and healthy younger members of the work force leave for Russia and Kazakhstan."
http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/central_asia/183_central_asia___migrants_and_economic_crisis.pdf

Mullahs, Guards, and Bonyads: An Exploration of Iranian Leadership Dynamics

2010-01-05T12:12:00.000-05:00

RAND Corp., January 2010
"The Islamic Republic of Iran poses serious challenges to U.S. interests in the Middle East, and its nuclear program continues to worry the international community. The presidential election of June 2009 that returned Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power and led to broad protests and a government crackdown presents yet another cause for U.S. concern. Yet the U.S. ability to “read” the Iranian regime and formulate appropriate policies has been handicapped by both a lack of access to the country and the opacity of decisionmaking in Tehran. To help analysts better understand the Iranian political system, the authors describe:

Iranian strategic culture, including the perceptions that drive state behavior
the informal networks, formal government institutions, and personalities that influence decisionmaking in the Islamic Republic
the impact of elite behavior on Iranian policy formulation and execution
factionalism, emerging fissures within the current regime, and other key trends."

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG878.pdf

Health and Medical Research in France

2010-01-05T12:08:00.000-05:00

RAND Corp, January 2010
"This documented briefing provides an overview of the health and medical research system in France. The report is supported by the Department of Health (England)."
http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/2010/RAND_DB590.pdf

Is There a European Medical Research Area?: Observatory on Health Research Systems

2010-01-05T12:04:00.000-05:00

RAND Corp., January 2010
"This documented briefing provides an overview of the European Research Area and explores whether such an integrated research area exists in health and biomedical research. The report is supported by the Department of Health (England)."
http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/2010/RAND_DB588.pdf

Issues in International Political Economy: Situation in Latin America, Year-end 2009

2010-01-05T12:00:00.001-05:00

CSIS, January 4, 2009
"The political differences among the countries in Latin America are profound, and this reality is perhaps the most important political commentary to make at year-end 2009. Countries of the region are more apt to learn from each other in the economic field."
http://csis.org/files/publication/issues200912.pdf

Crisis Watch, Nr. 77

2010-01-05T07:30:00.000-05:00

ISN Publication, January 4, 2010
"This issue of CrisisWatch summarizes developments during the month of December 2009 in some 70 situations of ongoing or potential conflict. These are listed alphabetically by region and provide references and links to more detailed information sources. It assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, during the previous month, significantly deteriorated, improved or on balance remained unchanged. Moreover, it alerts readers to situations where there is a particular risk of escalated conflict or, on the other hand, a conflict resolution opportunity."
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110912/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/DF8BD9DD-C34B-4907-8A39-4234DD2C0BFD/en/cw77.pdf

The East European Financial Crisis

2010-01-04T11:47:00.000-05:00

ISN Publication, December 17, 2009
"This paper discusses the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 in 13 countries: the 10 new EU members that previously were communist and the three countries of western former Soviet Union. The author argues that the dominant cause of the crisis was fixed exchange rates and elaborates on some of the lessons can be drawn from this crisis."
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110749/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/11C3322E-C0B5-47FB-8AF6-E4AA4EFC335B/en/395_Dec+17.pdf

The Afghan War at the End of 2009: Why the War is at a Crisis Stage

2010-01-04T11:41:00.000-05:00

CSIS, January 4, 2010
"This report focuses only on the fighting, and not on the full range of issues that must be addressed to win the war. It is essential to win meaningful victories at the tactical level, but there are six additional -- and equally critical -- elements of a successful campaign that still need to be addressed in a meaningful enough public form to provide any confidence that the President’s strategy is being effectively implemented."
http://csis.org/files/publication/100104_afghan_war_at_end_09.pdf

A Delicate Balance: Portfolio Analysis and Management for Intelligence Information Dissemination Programs

2010-01-04T09:08:00.000-05:00

RAND Corp, December 2009
"This description of the application of the RAND Corporation's PortMan portfolio analysis and management method for the National Security Agency (NSA) Information Sharing Services (ISS) division demonstrates how PortMan (1) enables the data-driven analysis of project portfolios and (2) provides a means for monitoring the progress of potentially high-value projects and associated risk-mitigation strategies."
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG939.pdf

How Terrorist Groups Survive: A Dynamic Network Analysis Approach to the Resilience of Terrorist Organizations

2010-01-04T09:01:00.000-05:00

School of Advanced Military Studies, May 21, 2009
"The purpose of this paper is to explore the question of how modern terrorist groups manage to survive in the face of aggressive counterterrorist operations by security forces. Al Qa’ida survives to this day, despite the destruction of their Afghanistan sanctuary, the loss of countless key personnel, and continuous pressure by the United States and their allies. Why has al Qa’ida survived? Since much of the literature on terrorism focuses on how to eliminate them, this research paper focuses on why they still endure. In other words, instead of asking, 'How do we kill them,' this research asks, 'Why don’t they die?''
http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA507988&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf

Felony Sentences in State Courts, 2006 - Statistical Tables

2010-01-04T08:39:00.000-05:00

Bureau of Justice Statistics, December 2009
"Presents findings from the 2006 National Judicial Reporting Program (NJRP), which compiles detailed information on the sentences that felons receive in state courts nationwide and on characteristics of the felons. The survey excludes federal courts and state or local courts that do not adjudicate adult felony cases. The tables in this publication provide data on the number of felony offenders in state courts, sentences received, demographic characteristics of convicted felons, and types of convictions. The report also covers comparisons to felony sentences in federal courts, using data from the Federal Justice Statistics Program (FJSP). The 2006 NJRP was based on a sample of state courts in 300 counties selected to be nationally representative. The survey included only offenses that state penal codes defined as felonies. Felonies are widely defined as crimes with the potential of being punished by more than 1 year in prison. NJRP surveys have been conducted every 2 years since 1986."
http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc06st.pdf

Central Asia: Islamists in Prison

2010-01-04T08:20:00.000-05:00

ISN Publication, December 15, 2009
"This brief assesses the problem of Islamists in prison in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. It argues that Islamist proselytizers are consolidating their position within the informal structures of power behind prison walls. Incarcerating determined activists is providing them with the opportunity to extend their influence among convicts, at first inside prison and then on their release. It also argues that for over a decade, muddle-through has been the strategy of choice for Central Asia’s rulers and that with the increasing armed threats coming from Afghanistan and deepening economic problems, time may no longer be on their side."
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110693/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/10DCCC52-D39E-4055-8FAB-4A983568E2E7/en/b97_central_asia_islamists_in_prison.pdf

Reshuffling the Cards?: Syria's New Hand

2010-01-04T08:13:00.003-05:00

ISN Publication, December 16, 2009
"This publication concentrates on the new assets of Syria’s foreign policy. Taking into account Syria's decision to accelerate economic reforms and resume peace talks with Israel in 2009, this paper assesses the consequences of such moves on Syria’s foreign policy goals. It argues that while Syria's policy moves have traditionally been driven by short-term objectives, the US administration’s vision for the region will have a decisive impact on Syria's future policy."
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110736/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/C1714B2D-7AB3-49D4-BEF0-351EFD6D3BF0/en/93_syrias_new_hand.pdf

New Year, New Style (maybe)

2010-01-04T08:03:00.001-05:00

With new years, come new things.
Now that the new year is finally here, I've decided try something different with the blog postings. Well, technically it's not really anything different, just a different posting style that I have been debating since the inception of this blog. From here on out, I plan on posting the resources individually as I get them rather than as one weekly post. The positives of doing my posts this way include the ability to individually share posted resources with anyone else who my find it useful (by using the share button at the end of each post), better tagging and therefore better searching of my blog posts, and a higher likelihood of others finding these resources through search engines (as the post titles will now read the title of the resource instead of a date range).

However, there are a few downsides to this. The biggest downside is that you will no longer have the consistent routine of a Thursday post. Furthermore, the posts will not really have any schedule consistency and will reflect my sporadic internet usage, resulting in a purging of posts followed by droughts. Lastly, because of some good changes with my employer, I will likely be updating this less often and possibly getting rid of this blog all-together (but this is still yet to be decided depending on my work schedule).
Hopefully the changes to the blog will be beneficial for you, and hopefully I'll still be able to keep up with keeping you updated!

Let the individual posts begin!

Dec 18 – Dec 24, 2009

2009-12-30T16:17:00.000-05:00

Issues and Insights Vol. 09 – No. 22: High Seas and Rising Tides – US-Japan Maritime Cooperation

CSIS, December 29, 2009

“For trading nations like Japan and the United States, the high seas have a special significance. Oceans do not just provide “moats” that protect the homeland from foreign enemies, but are vital highways for the commerce upon which their prosperity depends. It is not surprising that these two nations have made securing and protecting the maritime domain a top priority in their national security strategies and in their alliance. The growing interconnectedness of the global economy has triggered a shift in thinking about the oceans in other nations. While they acknowledge the increasing significance of the maritime domain to their national interest, they have been less quick to see the high seas as a “global commons.” Too often, national maritime policies are all too national and parochial in their approach.”

http://csis.org/files/publication/issuesinsights_v09n22.pdf

Issues and Insights Vol. 09 – No. 21: Dynamics of the US-Japan Alliance – Next Generation Perspectives

CSIS, December 29, 2009

“For more than a decade, the Pacific Forum CSIS, in conjunction with the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) and the Consulate General of Japan in San Francisco, has hosted a bilateral security seminar. The 15th annual Japan-U.S. Security Seminar, held March 27-28, 2009, brought together a select group of experts to explore the prospects and problems that this partnership faces in coming years. Participants are united in their belief that this alliance is vital to the security interests of both nations and serves as a cornerstone of regional stability and prosperity. That by no means guarantees its survival, but it does provide a firm foundation for action.”

http://csis.org/files/publication/issuesinsights_v09n21.pdf

China Security Vol.5 No.3: A Journal of China’s Strategic Development

China Security, December, 2009

“This peer-reviewed journal published by the World Security Institute (WSI) expresses diverse Chinese views on a range of security issues of importance to China, Asia, Sino-American relations and the world. China Security is published quarterly in English.”

Articles include:

1 A More Powerful China on Parade  -Zhang Xiaoming
2 Times Change, the Parade Stays the Same  -Matt Durnin
3 China’s Response to the Myanmar Refugee Crisis  -Drew Thompson
4 Climate Change, Water and China’s National Interest  -Scott Moore
5 The Rio Tinto Case and China’s Drive to Guard Secrets  -Jiang Ruqin
6 Secrets, Spies and Steel: the Rio Tinto Case  -Peter Yuan Cai
7 Superficial, Arrogant Nationalism  -Xiao Gongqin
8 Indian Ocean: Oil, Sea Lanes and the Security Dilemma  -Jason J. Blazevic
9 True Motives for China’s Manned Space Program  -Fiona Cunningham

http://www.chinasecurity.us/index.php?option=com_csissues&secid=13&catid=906&task=catetory&Itemid=8

Iran’s Latest Protests

CSIS, December 29, 2009

“The latest events in Iran (the death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, whom many considered the reformists’ spiritual leader; the unrest and brutal behavior of the regime’s thugs; the show trials; and the revelations about rape, torture, and executions) are symptoms of a tectonic shift in Iran’s political environment. Despite repeated warnings by the regime’s leaders, the Revolutionary Guards, the Basij, and even the police that demonstrations would be sternly confronted and that many would be arrested, the latest reformist and opposition demonstrations have been extensive and even more daring than those following the June elections. The longer these demonstrations go on in the face of demands by hardliners and even the speaker of the Majlis to arrest and mercilessly handle the opposition, the clearer it is that the focus of the opposition is no longer on Ahmadinejad but the system itself and Supreme Leader Khamenei.”

http://csis.org/publication/irans-latest-protests

Data Collection Methods: Semi-Structured Interviews and Focus Groups

RAND Corp, December, 2009

“The authors developed an introductory short course on qualitative research methods. This document provides an annotated version of the course material, which includes an overview of semi-structured interviews and focus groups, two techniques that are commonly used in policy research and applicable to many research questions.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/2009/RAND_TR718.pdf

Preparing and Training for the Full Spectrum of Military Challenges: Insights from the Experiences of China, France, the United Kingdom, India, and Israel

RAND Corp, December, 2009

“The U.S. military training system is the envy of many countries around the world, so what can the United States learn from other militaries about how better to prepare for full-spectrum operations and deployments? The authors examine the militaries of China, France, the UK, India, and Israel to identify different approaches to readiness, adaptability, and operational issues, including: using subject-matter experts to improve training for specific deployments, using staff training to prepare forces for multiple contingencies, allowing combat training centers to focus on foundational skills, and preparing units for a specific operational environment prior to deployment. The authors also examine how the United States, France, and the UK prepare for and conduct train, advise, and assist (TAA) missions, finding that the three countries employ significantly different approaches to staff selection, TAA deployments, staff training, and career progression.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG836.pdf

Consolidated Afloat Networks and Enterprise Services (CANES): Manpower, Personnel, and Training Implications

RAND Corp, December, 2009

“The computer networks, systems, and applications used on Navy ships are an amalgam of disparate hardware and software systems that were developed and introduced onboard largely independent from one another. The Consolidated Afloat Networks and Enterprise Services (CANES) initiative is designed to consolidate and improve the networks on tactical platforms, largely through a common computing environment. The conversion to CANES could reduce requirements for manpower and alter the demand for training. This report provides a review of current Navy manpower, personnel, and training practices; the implications of the conversion to CANES; and resulting recommendations.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG896.pdf

Justice Department Bulletin Details Declining Juvenile Arrests in 2008

Office of Justice Programs (OJP), December 15, 2009

“Drawing on the latest available data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's annual Crime in the United States report, the bulletin summarizes juvenile crimes known to the police and arrests made during 2008. Published annually by OJP's Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, these data characterize the extent and nature of juvenile crime that comes to the attention of the justice system. In 2008, U.S. law enforcement agencies arrested an estimated 2.11 million persons younger than age 18, a 3-percent decline over 2007. Also, in 2008, the rate of juvenile arrests for violent offenses—murder, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault—decreased 2 percent over 2007, continuing a recent decline.”

http://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/228479.pdf

Managing Sensitive Information: Actions Needed to Prevent Unintended Public Disclosures of US Nuclear Sites and Activities

GAO, December, 2009

“GAO recommends, among other things, that Commerce, DOE, State, and NRC enter into an interagency agreement concerning the designation, marking, and handling of sensitive information in future draft declarations and make any policy or regulatory changes necessary to reach such an agreement. DOE, State, and GPO agreed, while NRC neither agreed nor disagreed, with the recommendations. Commerce, White House Counsel, and the House Offices of the Clerk, Security, and Paliamentarian did not comment on GAO’s recommendations.”

http://www.fas.org/sgp/gao/iaea.pdf

The Stockholm Programme: Europe’s Next Step on its Quest to be an “Area of Freedom, Security, and Justice”

ISN Publication, December 15, 2009

“This brief examines the Stockholm Programme, a key component of the Justice and Home Affairs pillar of the EU, and the agenda for future action on this front. In addition to analyzing the plan on a general level, the author looks at migration policy in more detail. He argues that it is one of the most politically difficult areas within the program.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110670/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/70267294-E76F-43C3-BD7F-7D8BDB180383/en/UPI_Briefing_Paper_49_2009.pdf

From Virtual to European Democracy: The Origins and Consequences of the Political Breakthrough in Moldova

ISN Publication, December 15, 2009

“This paper describes the political crisis which emerged in Moldova over the spring and summer of 2009 against the background of the deeper political and social processes which have been occurring since 2001. The first part of the study describes the evolution of the Moldovan political system under former president Vladimir Voronin, characterized as an autocracy with a democratic façade. The second part examines Moldova's relations with three key external actors: the EU, Russia and Romania. It shows how Voronin's tactical moves led to a division between the regime and society.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110686/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/EA41212E-FB1F-4F25-ABBA-D0FBC535389F/en/PRACE_32.pdf

Changing Paradigm in Somalia

ISN Publication, December 14, 2009

“This paper provides an update on the conflict in Somalia and assesses the achievements and shortcomings of the Djibouti reconciliation process thus far. The author argues that security sector reform and the strengthening of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Somalia do not, in themselves, provide a solution to the country's plight.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110684/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/EAE49469-FB3C-4D08-9DBA-163380AE4911/en/SITREPSOMALIA14122009.pdf

Dec 18 – Dec 24, 2009

2009-12-23T18:09:00.000-05:00

Exploring the Nuclear Posture Implications of Extended Deterrence and Assurance

CSIS, December 01, 2009

“The purpose of the report is to identify the characteristics of the U.S. nuclear force posture that support extended deterrence and analyze how changes in the force posture affect the credibility of its assurance, paying particular attention to the competing needs and interests of U.S. allies in Europe, Northeast Asia and the Middle East.”

http://csis.org/files/publication/091218_nuclear_posture.pdf

Jonglei’s Tribal Conflicts: Countering Insecurity in South Sudan

Crisis Group, December 23, 2009

“Jonglei is the largest of South Sudan’s ten states, comprising some 120,000 square kilometres. Home to 1.3 million inhabitants, it is also among the most underdeveloped regions in the world. Multiple ethnic communities migrate seasonally to sustain cattle and preserve their pastoralist way of life. Access to water and grazing areas, as well as cattle rustling, are thus primary triggers of conflict. Tensions between communities are aggravated by pervasive tribalism and perceptions of state bias, the virtual absence of roads and infrastructure, widespread food insecurity, land disputes and limited access to justice. The escalating conflict cycles witnessed in and around Jonglei in 2009 have sown deep mistrust, and movement during the dry season could reignite large-scale conflict early in 2010.”

http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/africa/horn_of_africa/4_jongleis_tribal_conflicts___countering_insecurity_in_south_sudan.pdf

Trends in Connectivity Technologies and Their Socioeconomic Impacts: Policy Options for the Ubiquitous Internet Society

RAND Corp., December 17, 2009

“This report contains a review of technology trends underlying the future Internet Society. It assesses the possible future socio-economic impacts; as well as the changing business models that are likely to emerge in the next 5 to 10 years. The ultimate objective of the study is to make future policy recommendations for the successor programme to the current EU’s ICT strategy: the i2010 programme. The project involved trend analysis, econometric modelling [sic], desk research, interviews, a survey, scenario development and gaming.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/2009/RAND_TR776.pdf

The Aryan Circle: Crime in the Name of Hate

Anti-Defamation League (ADL), December 16, 2009

“The Aryan Circle is a large, growing and dangerous white supremacist gang based primarily in Texas. Active in prisons and on the streets, it has a long track record of murder, including the deaths of two police officers in Bastrop, Louisiana, in 2007.” This report goes on to report how this hate group has spread its influence and membership across the state of Texas to over 1400 members. In addition, the ADL delves into all the inner-workings of the Aryan Circle – including recruitment techniques and the role of women in their group.

http://www.adl.org/extremism/Aryan-Circle-Report.pdf

Natural Gas and Israel’s Energy Future: A Strategic Analysis Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty (Technical Report)

RAND Corp, December 2009

“Ensuring a sufficient supply of energy, particularly electricity, to meet the ever-greater demands of a booming Israeli economy is a national concern. Israel began to introduce natural gas into its energy mix only in 2004. This report examines strategic alternatives available to Israel to make greater use of domestic and imported sources of natural gas. It explores both natural gas-utilization and supply-infrastructure strategies in an environment characterized by extreme uncertainty and potentially large consequences. It provides a detailed understanding of what are favorable future environments for Israel and, perhaps more importantly, what factors would lead to futures that are undesirable in light of Israel's goals and interests.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/2009/RAND_TR747.pdf

Natural Gas and Israel’s Energy Future: Near Term Decisions from a Strategic Perspective

RAND Corp., December, 2009

“Israel's electric-power system needs new capacity to meet the demands of its growing economy. Israel must make major decisions on investing in new base-load generating capacity in the near future. Planners and policymakers need to consider likely future levels of demand, the costs and availability of sources of supply, security of supply, reliability, environmental effects, and land use. Decisions have to be made under conditions of deep uncertainty about what the future may have in store. This monograph discusses the opportunities and risks the government of Israel faces in shifting to a greater reliance on domestic and imported natural gas. The analysis seeks to help the Israeli government engage in managed change by choosing robust strategies that minimize potential consequences of relying more heavily on natural gas.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG927.english.pdf

Roadmap to Low Carbon Energy by 2030

WorldWatch Institute, December 2009

“Tackling climate change and a host of other global challenges will require systematic transformation of the global energy system over the next several decades, according to Renewable Revolution: Low-Carbon Energy by 2030, by Janet Sawin and William Moomaw. The report, released by the Worldwatch Institute and the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP), highlights four key synergies between energy efficiency and renewable energy and argues that these two strategies, used in concert, can play a key role in meeting rising global demand for energy services while averting catastrophic climate change.”

http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/Renewable%20Revolution.pdf

Seizing Opportunities for Turkey’s rowing Influence

ISN Publication, December 09, 2009

“This memo argues that Turkey is becoming an increasingly important regional player as well as an indispensible ally to the US and the EU. It provides suggestions for the EU and US to follow to ensure Turkey will continue to be a constructive ally.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110526/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/36259482-4823-4DC6-A632-AF24295B7C15/en/Memo+21+Turkey.pdf

The Cambodia-Thailand Conflict: A Test for ASEAN

ISN Publications, December 10, 2009

“This publication analyzes the role of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the political crisis between Cambodia and Thailand. The author argues that this crisis presents a test case for ASEAN to act as a key player in resolving disputes among its members. They contend that a failure to do so would reduce ASEAN's credibility and impede the realization by 2015 of an ASEAN community.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110515/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/B2AFB852-EC4E-46BF-AD27-C0A1FBDF9D2E/en/apb044.pdf

No 70: The North Caucuses Crisis

ISN Publications, December 21, 2009

“This paper addresses the situation in Russia's Northern Caucasus 10 years after the beginning of the second Chechen War and Vladimir Putin's subsequent rise to power. It explores the situation in Chechnya after the official end of the counterterrorist operations, discusses social-political instability in Ingushetia and looks at the relations between Dagestan and the Russian state. One of the authors argues that after the lift of the counterterrorist operations regime in Chechnya in spring 2009, the situation in the Caucasus deteriorated dramatically.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110674/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/48838009-56F5-4113-882B-C2B286736AA9/en/Russian_Analytical_Digest_70.pdf

Recasting NATO’s Strategic Concept: Possible Directions for the United States

RAND Corp., December 2009

“To address its security challenges, the United States needs the active support of its allies. This means, in particular, ensuring that the states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) remain able and willing to make a contribution to resolving their common security problems wherever possible. The revision of NATO's strategic concept offers an excellent opportunity to further this aim. It is a chance to build consensus about the future and thereby steer the alliance in a direction that will help keep it relevant. This paper examines five possible directions — refocus on Europe, new focus on the greater Middle East, focus on fragile states, focus on nonstate threats, and a global alliance of liberal democracies — the alliance might adopt, assessing them against certain key political and military criteria. It offers those involved in the rewrite both a range of potential options and a preliminary assessment of the feasibility and potential implications of each. The purpose is to encourage debate around the major, concrete problems that member states face.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP280.pdf

The Philippines: After the Maguindanao Massacre

Crisis Group, December 21, 2009

“The international outrage generated by last month’s massacre in Maguindanao, southern Philippines, of 57 men and women, half of them journalists, may offer opportunities to make progress in the areas of justice, security and peace. The latest update briefing from the International Crisis Group shows how the 23 November killings were not the result of a clan feud, as widely reported, but of Manila’s deliberate nurturing of a ruthless warlord in exchange for votes.”

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/getfile.cfm?id=4229&tid=6451&l=1

Target America Series, No. 23

NEFA Foundation, December 17, 2009

“The NEFA Foundation has released the 23rd report in the “Target: America” series, a PowerPoint presentation examining the September 23rd, 2009, attempt by Michael C. Finton (a.k.a. Talib Islam) to trigger a bomb packed in a van that he had parked outside of the Paul Findley Federal Building in Springfield, Illinois.”

http://www.nefafoundation.org/miscellaneous/FeaturedDocs/nefa_fintontargetamerica.pdf

Iran as a Nuclear Weapons Power

CSIS, December 16, 2009

“The latest discoveries regarding Iran’s nuclear program are simply the next development in a process that has been going on since the Iran-Iraq War, and Khomeini’s decision to resume nuclear research once Iran came under chemical weapons attack from Iraq.”

http://csis.org/files/publication/091216_IrannuclearRpt.pdf

Uribe’s Possible Third Term and Conflict Resolution in Colombia

Crisis Group, December 18, 2009

“The decision on whether to change the constitution to enable President Álvaro Uribe to seek a third consecutive term in 2010 will have important consequences for Colombia’s efforts to resolve its armed conflict and tensions with its neighbours. The International Crisis Group examines the process of enabling a third presidential term and why the decision on this fundamental issue needs to be accompanied by a recognition that pressing questions of national security, strengthening of democratic institutions and conflict resolution will not wait and should not depend on who may sit in the presidential office after August 2010.”

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/getfile.cfm?id=4226&tid=6449&type=pdf&l=1

The Northern Distribution Network and the Modern Silk Road

CSIS, December 17, 2009

“As the U.S. presence in Afghanistan increases, so too will its demand for nonmilitary supplies. To accommodate this growth and address ongoing concerns with Pakistani supply lines, U.S. planners have opened the Northern Distribution Network (NDN), a commercially-based logistical corridor connecting Baltic and Black Sea ports with Afghanistan via Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.”

http://csis.org/files/publication/091217_Kuchins_NorthernDistNet_Web.pdf

DOD Information Assurance Policy Chart

ITAC via IntelFusion Blog, November 10, 2009

“This chart has been prepared by the IATAC and made available for public release. They ask that if you know of any policy updates that may not be properly reflected on the IA Policy Chart or any suggestions to improve the chart, to send suggestions, comments or questions about the chart to IATAC@dtic.mil. If you have questions about the content of any particular policy, please contact the POC for that policy directly.” (IntelFusion Blog)

http://iac.dtic.mil/iatac/download/ia_policychart.pdf

Any updates to this chart will be posted at: http://iac.dtic.mil/iatac/ia_policychart.html

The Rise of China’s Auto Industry and its Impact on the US Motor Vehicle Industry

Congressional Research Service via Federation of American Scientists/Secrecy News, November 16, 2009

“The automobile industry, a key sector in China’s industrialization and modernization efforts, has been developing rapidly since the 1990s. In recent years, China has become the world’s fastest growing automotive producer. Annual vehicle output has increased from less than 2 million vehicles in the late 1990s to 9.5 million in 2008. In terms of production volume in 2008, China has surpassed Korea, France, Germany, and the United States, trailing only Japan. A disproportionate share of China’s output was heavy vehicles in the 1990s. However, since 2000 China’s growth has been led by an increase in passenger cars, which now account for more than 65% of its vehicle production. China’s automobile industry has continued to expand despite the global economic downturn. From January to October 2009, more than 10 million vehicles were sold in China. If such growth continues, China is on its way to becoming world’s largest auto market.”

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R40924.pdf

A historical reflection on research evaluation studies, their recurrent themes and challenges

RAND Corp, December 2009

“This report presents a historical reflection on research evaluation studies, their recurrent themes and challenges, and their implications. It critically examines studies of how scientific research drives innovation and socioeconomic benefits.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/2009/RAND_TR789.pdf

Freeman Report, Vol 7 No 11-12

CSIS, December 17, 2009

“Cross-Strait relations have improved dramatically since President Ma took office in May 2008. The key to this development was Ma’s “no independence, no unification and no use of force” declaration that essentially relieved the PRC of its worst nightmare, i.e., Taiwan’s formal declaration of independence. In return, Beijing has implicitly accepted a diplomatic truce and allowed Taiwan to attain observer status in the WHO. More broadly, the PRC has moved forward expeditiously on the economic front opening up to direct links (now totaling 270 weekly flights), promoting Chinese tourism to Taiwan (now up to one million per year) and imports from Taiwan. While the Ma administration and the PRC are not scheduled to include discussion of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) in the formal SEF-ARATS talks in December, the two are expected to conclude an “early harvest” agreement by 2010 with Beijing agreeing to lower or eliminate tariffs on a significant list of Taiwan imports to compete with those from ASEAN countries.”

http://csis.org/files/publication/fr09n11-12.pdf

From Comrades to Classmates: Social Networks on the Russian Internet

Digitalicons.org, December, 2009

Focusing on Studies in Russian, Eurasian, and Central European New Media, Digitalicons.org has recently posted their second issue titled, From Comrades to Classmates: Social Networks on the Russian Internet. This issue has a slew of great articles on Russia’s and Eurasia’s social networks. Articles include: Social Networking on RuNet, Examining Political Group Membership on LiveJournal, Psychoanalytical Aspects of Self-Representation in Blogs, Tatar Groups in Vkontakte, Social Media and Ukrainian Presidential Elections, The Online Library and the Classic Literacy Cannon in Post-Soviet Russia, and Social Networks in an Un-Networked Society.

http://www.digitalicons.org/

Dec 11 – Dec 17, 2009

2009-12-17T09:13:00.000-05:00

Algeria: SAM Site Overview

IMINT & Analysis Blog – Sean O’Connor, December 17, 2009

Sean O’Connor, an Air Defense and Strategic Warfare Subject Matter Expert, has created an GoogleEarth kmz file displaying Algeria’s Surface to Air Missile sites. Mr. O’Connor claims that this project is still a work-in-progress due to the amount of sites he has to process, but so far so good! It looks like he plans to later release another update with information on multiple nations!! On his blog, he states: “Starting with the next update, you'll now be able to click in the Places screen where it says ‘SAMS by country’ and get a menu titled ‘Fully interactive nations.’ There you'll see a list of all nations that are completed.”

Here is the kmz file he created:

http://imintandanalysis.googlepages.com/AlgeriaInteractive.kmz

Confronting al-Qaeda: Understanding the Threat in Afghanistan

Perspectives on Terrorism Journal, December, 2009

“Counter-terrorism policy should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the facts. A comprehensive survey of global neo-jihadi terrorism in the West shows that there were 60 plots over the past 20 years, perpetrated by 46 different networks. Of these only 14 successfully inflicted any casualty, and only two were perpetrated by al-Qaeda proper in the past 20 years. Over the past five years, global neo-jihadi and al-Qaeda terrorism in the West is in decline and the vast majority of the plots were perpetrated by independent homegrown groups, inspired by al- Qaeda but not linked to it or its allies. Since 9/11/01, none of the plots could be traced back to Afghanistan. Indeed, the detailed trial transcripts of the major plots in the West since 9/11/01 show that there was no al-Qaeda training in Afghanistan and that there is no Afghan among the perpetrators. There has been no global neo-jihadi terrorist casualty in the West in the past four years and none in the U.S. in the past eight years. This means that the U.S. military surge in Afghanistan will not help protect U.S. and Western homelands from a- Qaeda and its allies. The argument that the surge will prevent a return of al-Qaeda to Afghanistan to the same level of threat as prior to 2001 is based on many dubious assumptions. Counter-terrorism in the West has been very successful and the value added of an increased counter-insurgency campaign in Afghanistan is debatable.”

http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php?option=com_rokzine&view=article&id=92&Itemid=54

Sudan: Preventing Implosion

Crisis Group, December 17, 2009

”If the international community does not step in to ensure full implementation of Sudan’s North-South peace deal and shore up other failing centre-periphery agreements, the country risks a return to all-out civil war. The International Crisis Group examines the situation in the run-up to national elections due next year and the early 2011 referendum on self-determination in the South. It concludes that key elements of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended the two-decades-long civil war between North and South Sudan, have not been implemented. The failure to foster democratic transformation in the North has also undermined the chances for political settlement in Darfur and exacerbated tensions in other parts of the country.”

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/getfile.cfm?id=4216&tid=6438&l=1

START Follow-on Treaty Background

Brookings Institute, December 15, 2009

“U.S. and Russian negotiators are engaging in endgame negotiations to establish a new nuclear arms agreement that will replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which expired on December 5. Steven Pifer lays out the essential background for understanding the START treaty and the endgame negotiations now underway. ”

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/speeches/2009/1215_start_treaty_pifer/1215_start_treaty_pifer.pdf

United States Air Force Fleet Retention Trends: A Historical Analysis

RAND Corp., December, 2009

“This report provides historical contextual information on the ages of aircraft designs operated by the Air Force. Using reports published in 1998 by the Air Force Historical Agency, the authors identify the first year in which any active wing or squadron reported operating a specific aircraft design and the last year in which a given aircraft design was reported as being operated by any active wing or squadron. The greatest number of introductions of new designs and retirement of old designs occurred during World War II. … In contrast, more recent periods have seen longer-lasting designs and relatively fewer short-lived designs. Since the end of World War II and the formation of the Air Force as an independent military service, there has been a consistent trend for the Air Force to keep aircraft designs in operation for ever-longer periods.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/2009/RAND_TR740.pdf

Somali Piracy: The Next Iteration

Perspectives on Terrorism Journal, December, 2009

“The article describes the escalation of acts of maritime piracy emanating from the coast of Somalia, comparing them to the wave of aerial hijackings in the 1960s and 1970s in terms of demands, including political demands. The advantages for the pirates to gang up with land-based al-Shabaab terrorists are discussed and likely developments sketched.”

http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php?option=com_rokzine&view=article&id=93&Itemid=54

Calculated Terror

Foreign Policy Magazine, December 15, 2009

This is an excellent article written by Aaron Mannes and V.S. Subrahmanian that describes a new analytical method used to assess the behavior of HAMAS. The method is based on historical data, mathematical statistics and weighting, and can be used to assess likely future actions/behaviors of known terrorist organizations (at least for organizations in which a computer model has been developed). This analytical method is called “Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agents,” or SOMA. I’m not certain how different SOMA is from analyses using the Bayes Theorem (aside from using some type of historical database, I’m not sure how the analysis differs – possibly different mathematical formulae?? – if anyone knows, please feel free to enlighten me). However, the authors describe SOMA as follows:

“Probabilistic logic programs (PLPs) have been proposed as a paradigm for probabilistic logical reasoning with no independence assumptions. In the Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agents project, we have developed a straightforward variant of PLPs called action-probabilistic logic programs (ap-programs) that can be used to model the behavior of certain socio-cultural-economic groups in different parts of the world. Such ap-programs contain rules that state things like “There is a 50 to 70% probability that group g will take action(s) a when condition C holds.”

In such applications, the problem of interest is that of finding the most probable action (or sets of actions) that the group being modeled might do in a given situation, which corresponds precisely to the problem of finding a “most probable world” (MPW). We have developed several exact and heuristic algorithms for more efficiently solving the MPW problem. Using these methods, the SOMA framework can forecast the most likely behavior of a group in a given situation.

Currently, we have automatically extracted ap-programs for 36 terror groups in the Middle East, looking at 41 strategic actions for each group, such as whether they engaged in bombings, kidnappings, who they target, etc.”

http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/pdfs/MOBILEINTERNET_12_15_09_V3.pdf

The Mobile Internet Report

Morgan Stanley, December, 2009

“Our [Morgan Stanley] global technology and telecom analysts set out to do a deep dive into the rapidly changing mobile Internet market. We [Morgan Stanley] wanted to create a data-rich, theme-based framework for thinking about how the market may develop. We [Morgan Stanley] intend to expand and edit the framework as the market evolves. A lot has changed since we [Morgan Stanley] published “The Internet Report” in 1995 on the web.
We [Morgan Stanley] decided to create The Mobile Internet Report largely in PowerPoint and publish it on the web, expecting that bits and pieces of it will be cut / pasted / redistributed and debated / dismissed / lauded. Our [Morgan Stanley] goal is to get our thoughts and data into the conversation about what may be the biggest technology trend ever, one that may help make us all more informed in ways that are unique to the web circa 2009, and beyond.”

http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/pdfs/MOBILEINTERNET_12_15_09_V3.pdf

Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release [Summary] with Projections to 2035

Energy Information Administration, December 14, 2009

“The Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (AEO2010 ) reference case released today by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) presents updated projections for U.S. energy consumption and production through 2035.”

http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/speeches/newell121409.pdf

Reference Case: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/appa.pdf

Death in the United States: 2007

National Center for Health Statistics, December, 2009

“Mortality in the United States, as summarized by the age-adjusted death rate-a measure that accounts for changes in the age distribution of the population-has declined in an almost uninterrupted manner since 1960. The death rate is now 43 percent lower than in 1960 (declining from 1,339.2 per 100,000 standard population in 1960 to 760.3 in 2007). However, not all Americans have benefited equally from this decline. While there is a decline in mortality among all groups, longstanding gaps only recently began to diminish. Much of the recent improvements in death rates and life expectancy for all population groups can be attributed to ongoing reductions in death rates from major causes of death such as heart disease, cancer, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and stroke.”

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db26.pdf

Report and Recommendations of the Presidential Task Force on Controlled Unclassified Information

Presidential Task Force on Controlled Unclassified Information, December 15, 2009

“The President's Memorandum of May 27, 2009 on Classified Information and Controlled Unclassified Information, directed a Task Force, led by the Secretary of Homeland Security and the Attorney General, to review the Controlled Unclassified Information (“CUI”) Framework established in 2008 for the management of Sensitive but Unclassified(“SBU”) terrorism-related information. The Task Force undertook a 90-day study of the CUI Framework, the current regimes for managing SBU information in the Executive Branch, and, by extension, the sharing of that information with our non-federal information-sharing partners.”

http://www.fas.org/sgp/cui/taskforce.pdf

Iraq: Creating a Strategic Partnership

CSIS, December 15, 2009

“The study shows that Iraq faces serious immediate problems in each area, but all of the above challenges are “structural” in the sense that they require major changes in Iraq’s present politics, governance, security structure, and economy that will take years to accomplish. This does not mean Iraq cannot make progress much earlier, and it already has in many areas. The scale of each challenge, however, is too great for such progress to quickly reach the point of lasting success. History takes time in Iraq, as it does everywhere else in the world.”

http://csis.org/files/publication/091215_consolidated.manuscript.pdf

Iran Sanctions: Options, Opportunities, and Consequences

RAND Corp., December 15, 2009

“Testimony presented before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs on December 15, 2009.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/2009/RAND_CT337.pdf

Understanding Terrorist Motivations

RAND Corp., December 15, 2009

“Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing and Terrorism Risk Assessment on December 15, 2009.”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/2009/RAND_CT338.pdf

No. 69: Internet Blogs

ISN Publication, December 14, 2009

“This publication addresses the Russian internet and social media landscape arguing that it has features that are specific to Russia and distinct from counterparts in the US or elsewhere. It specifically analyzes the impact of the Russian blogosphere on the Russian political system. It concludes that the way most Russians use the internet reflects their lack of interest in political topics.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110555/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/6BBE9D70-F06D-4D5C-95A1-3F44A00DDD4C/en/Russian_Analytical_Digest_69.pdf

Central Asia: Islamists in Prison

Crisis Group, December 15, 2009

“Prisons in Central Asia are becoming hothouses for the growth of militant Islamism, threatening long-term stability in the region. There is a rising number and political significance of Islamists in state detention. It argues that the governments’ tough policy on political Islam only increases the risk of violent militancy. The failure to differentiate between armed Islamist groups and those who oppose the state by political means will deepen the divide between the observant Muslim population and central governments – a particularly dangerous development at a time when the risk of armed Islamic insurgency is growing.”

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/getfile.cfm?id=4212&tid=6435&l=1

NATO’s Role in the 21 Century and its Potential Contribution for Peace and Stability in the Asia-Pacific Region

ISN Publication, December 15, 2009

“This paper reflects opportunities and chances, but also risks, threats and dangers that might influence strategic stability in regards to NATO defining its primary objectives. The author encourages the members of the Alliance to work on both their cooperation and dialogue as well as their willingness and capacity for collective defense and crisis response operations as a key orientation for the 21st century. He therefore advocates that NATO should become "more capable, more coherent and more active" in order to cope with the challenges ahead.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110553/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/5AC6EC83-1537-4852-BA96-7C5F7C9C2690/en/2009-12_NATOs_Role_21Century.pdf

Reshuffling the Cards (I): Syria’s Evolving Strategy

Crisis Group, December 14, 2009

“Syria’s foreign policy has long been a contradictory mix of militancy and pragmatism, but new dynamics create opportunities for the U.S. if it does more to deepen its engagement. This Crisis Group report examines changes in Damascus’s outlook and concludes that further shifts will hinge on the regime’s assessment of the costs of its choices, both in terms of domestic stability and regional standing. That, in turn, largely will depend on what other parties do. This is the first part of a Crisis Group report that analyses changes in Syria’s regional approach and prospects for improved relations with Washington. The second part with further details will be published shortly.”

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/getfile.cfm?id=4211&tid=6434&type=pdf&l=1

Reshuffling the Cards (II): Syria’s Evolving Strategy

Crisis Group, December 16, 2009

“U.S. diplomatic engagement with Syria risks losing momentum if it fails to build upon several potentially promising changes in Damascus's policy. This report completes a two-part International Crisis Group series published this week on that key Middle Eastern country’s evolving strategy, examining the motives for new directions in foreign policy since 2008 that have enabled Damascus to take the initiative after years of isolation. Paradoxically, little has happened in relations with Washington since President Obama took office, despite hopes generated by his election.”

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/getfile.cfm?id=4215&tid=6437&type=pdf&l=1

The Relevance of the Singapore Armed Forces: A Journey Into Singaporeaness

ISN Publication, December 14, 2009

“This commentary assesses the existence of the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) as a national institution. The author discusses the relevancy of the SAF for Singapore's 'Generation Y,' noting that the SAF must be able to convince its Generation Y servicemen of the rationale of military service. He then examines the relationship between the SAF, identity and citizenship.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110543/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/4AA8A5DA-8891-44ED-BD01-1DCD59B699F9/en/RSIS1252009.pdf

Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review 2009

Office of the Director of National Intelligence via Noah Shachtman’s “Danger Room” Blog, December 14, 2009 (report created in Jan 2009)

“The Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review (QICR) 2009 is a scenario-based strategic planning activity that looks out to the year 2025 and considers alternative futures (i.e., “scenarios”), missions the Intelligence Community (IC) might be called on to perform, and the operating principles and capabilities required to fulfill those missions. In short, QICR provides an opportunity to assess how the IC can best position itself to address future challenges. The insights gleaned are intended to help shape the next National Intelligence Strategy and other planning and capability guidance documents.”

http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/dangerroom/2009/12/qicr-scenarios.pdf

Privacy: An Overview of Federal Statutes Governing Wiretapping and Electronic Eavesdropping

Congressional Research Service, December 3, 2009

“This report provides an overview of federal law governing wiretapping and electronic eavesdropping. It also appends citations to state law in the area and contains a bibliography of legal commentary as well as the text of the Electronic Communications Privacy Act (ECPA) and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA).”

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/intel/98-326.pdf

The Pitfalls of Joint Warfare: Conjoined or Separated?

ISN Publication, December 09, 2009

“This commentary cautions that the joint operations principle should not be adopted at the expense of single service competencies. Following a brief history of joint warfare, the author emphasizes the need for commanders to be sensitized to the possibilities of joint warfare. He further stresses that individual service competency remains the foundation for successful joint operations.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110519/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/D4444A2C-6300-4707-AAF9-6C981BF8DEE7/en/RSIS1232009.pdf

A Study Into the Size of the World's Intelligence Industry

Chris Hippner – Masters Thesis, October 2009

“This thesis determines the approximate size of the world’s intelligence industry in quantitative terms. It reviews existing literature which describes, in qualitative terms, various themes found about intelligence agencies around the world. The thesis provides a quantitative method to estimate unknown intelligence spending and personnel. The study concludes that the world’s intelligence industry spends approximately 106 billion United States Dollars, and employs about one million people. Furthermore, the hypothesized direct correlation between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and intelligence spending may exist, but the research does not strongly support the assertion. It is apparent that GDP is a factor when it comes to intelligence spending, but it does not seem to be the primary component.”

http://www.scribd.com/doc/23958185/A-Study-Into-the-Size-of-the-World-s-Intelligence-Industry

Political Realignment in Tokyo: Impact on India-Japan Relations

ISN Publication, December 08, 2009

“This commentary assesses the state of India-Japan relations following the inauguration of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government in September 2009. The author states that while relations seem to be in a state of uncertainty, they are likely to improve and strengthen. The DPJ needs to elaborate on its policy toward India, and the Indian government needs to give more substance to its 'Look East' policy.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110518/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/5C1DB1BC-1B49-4FB8-A293-E00158E93F2E/en/RSIS1222009.pdf

US Arms Sales: Agreements with and Deliveries to Major Clients, 2001-2008

Congressional Research Service, December 2, 2009

“This report provides background data on United States arms sales agreements with and deliveries to its major purchasers during calendar years 2001-2008, made through the U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program. In a series of data tables, it lists the total dollar values of U.S. government to-government arms sales agreements with its top five purchasers, and the total dollar values of U.S. arms deliveries to those purchasers, in five specific regions of the world for three specific periods: 2001-2004, 2005-2008, and 2008 alone. In addition, the report provides data tables listing the total dollar values of U.S. government-to-government arms agreements with and deliveries to its top 10 purchasers worldwide for the periods 2001-2004, 2005-2008, and for 2008 alone. This report is prepared in conjunction with CRS Report R40796, Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 2001-2008, by Richard F. Grimmett.”

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/intel/98-326.pdf

War in Afghanistan: Strategy, Military Operations, and Issues for Congress

Congressional Research Service, December 3, 2009

“The U.S. government faces key strategic and operational decisions about its further engagement in the war in Afghanistan. These may include clarifying U.S. national interests in Afghanistan and the region; defining clear strategic objectives based on those interests; determining which diplomatic, economic, and military approaches to adopt, and what resources to commit to support those approaches; prioritizing “Afghanistan” versus other national security imperatives; and helping marshal a coordinated application of international efforts. Avenues available to Congress for exercising oversight include authorizing and appropriating funding for U.S. efforts in Afghanistan and the region; shaping policy through directive legislation; holding oversight hearings to assess policy execution; and adjusting Administration reporting requirements. This report provides analysis of current developments and future options concerning the war in Afghanistan. It will be updated as events warrant.”

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R40156.pdf

Convertible Weapons in the Western Balkans

ISN Publication, December 08, 2009

“This report is the result of a comparative study to determine the extent to which convertible weapons are addressed in existing legislation in the Western Balkans and the extent to which this corresponds with new EU regulations. It contains case studies of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo. It finds that many countries in the region have been affected by the illicit trafficking, possession and use of convertible weapons.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110523/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/71C64426-693B-478D-92F0-9FD51BD9F1B0/en/2009-12_Convertible-Weapons.pdf

Law Enforcement Officer Fatality Statistics – 2009 Preliminary Statistics

beSpecific, December 2009

Early statistics for law enforcement officer fatalities.

http://www.nleomf.org/facts/officer-fatalities-data/

The ASEAN Regional Forum and Preventative Diplomacy

ISN Publication, December 7, 2009

“This publication examines the reasons why the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has not managed to engage in preventative diplomacy (PD) through the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). The authors argue that the ARF has evolved into a highly formal forum which has inhibited the adoption of a PD agenda. They review the concept and practice of PD by the UN and other actors during and post-Cold War, and critically assess the ARF with regards to its role in the PD.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110433/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/ADCBF381-C047-4D46-9AA9-2825C4AAC09D/en/WP189.pdf

Europe’s Muslims

DataVis, December 13, 2009

This map visualization depicts Europe’s Muslim Population. The map includes a detailed close-up of England’s Muslim population, outlining predominant Muslim areas both within London and outside of London.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_6RbZKweOfIY/Sn82BoyT6QI/AAAAAAAAAMU/IpNivILe1_0/s1600-h/Muslim.jpg

2010 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast

Tropical Meteorology Project — Colorado State University, December 9, 2009

“Information obtained through November 2009 indicates that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be somewhat more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that activity will return to levels more typical of years during an active era, such as what we have experienced since 1995. We expect to see approximately 11-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes occur during the 2010 hurricane season. These numbers are based on the average of our statistical model, our analog model and qualitative adjustments and insights. At this point, there is too much uncertainty in what large-scale parameters will be in August-October of next year to issue a forecast for specific numbers. However, we do feel that we are in a favorable position for issuing an early December forecast this year, since we believe the odds of a multi-year El Nino event are quite small. Because we are predicting an above-average hurricane season in 2010, the probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above the long-period average. This forecast is based on a new extended-range early December statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data. The influences of El Nino conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. We expect to see the moderate to strong El Nino event that is currently in progress diminish by the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.”

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2009/dec2009/dec2009.pdf

Europe’s Security Policy

ISN Publication, December 10, 2009

“This paper assesses the EU's security policy, focusing on the issue of conflict prevention and highlighting the need for a dedicated process of change in the EU's analysis of challenges, structures, strategy and capabilities. It discusses the need for EU internal security as well as the question of how to project stability beyond the borders of the EU. The author argues that a comprehensive, integrated approach is necessary to deal with the security challenges of the 21st century.”

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110444/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/908A9A16-9139-4837-9732-57B63C46E280/en/2009-12-10_Europes_Security_Policy.pdf

US Aerospace Manufacturing: Industry Overview and Prospects

Congressional Research Service, December 3, 2009

“Aircraft and automobile manufacturing are considered by many to be the technological backbones of the U.S. manufacturing base. As the Obama Administration and Congress debate how to strengthen American manufacturing, aerospace is likely to receive considerable attention. Like other manufacturing industries, the worldwide recession has affected aerospace manufacturing, with both the defense and commercial sides of the industry facing difficult business conditions for the near and medium term. This report primarily provides a snapshot of the U.S. commercial (non-defense, non-space) aerospace manufacturing industry and a discussion of major trends affecting the future of this industry.”

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40967.pdf

A Journalist’s Guide to Sexual and Reproductive Health in East Africa

Population Reference Bureau, November 2009

“This PRB media guide brings together the latest available data on sexual and reproductive health for five East African countries—Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda—to help journalists educate the public and policymakers on these issues. Sexual and reproductive health encompasses health and well-being in matters related to sexual relations, pregnancies, and births. It deals with the most intimate and private aspects of people's lives, which can be difficult to write about and discuss publicly. As a result, the public misunderstands many sexual and reproductive health matters. In addition, cultural sensitivities and taboos surrounding sexuality often prevent people from seeking information and care and preclude governments from addressing the issues.”

http://www.prb.org/pdf09/eastafricamedia.pdf

A Core Set of Global Environmental Indicators

Visual Think Map, October 19, 2009

“This publication examines the reasons why the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has not managed to engage in preventative diplomacy (PD) through the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). The authors argue that the ARF has evolved into a highly formal forum which has inhibited the adoption of a PD agenda. They review the concept and practice of PD by the UN and other actors during and post-Cold War, and critically assess the ARF with regards to its role in the PD.”

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2752/4027830746_91957ccb4f_b_d.jpg

Dec 04 – Dec 10, 2009

2009-12-10T11:17:00.001-05:00

Afghanistan Strategy / COIN Dynamics: Strategy Link Chart

PA Consulting Group, December 8, 2009

This chart is a visual representation for the new strategy plan for Afghanistan. I think that the reviews on the chart will be about 50/50 – some, like me (who loves visual representations, and particularly link charts), will think that this chart is genius, while others will think it’s completely FUBAR and pointless. I must add that the chart looks complicated because the situation IS complicated. …just try not to let all the lines and colors get in the way of really looking at the map Also, when feeling lost or overwhelmed with the information, keep these three key strategy goals in mind: 1) Retain supportive individuals on the side of the Coalition, 2) Influence the insurgent-minded to become neutral, and 3) Influence the neutral-minded to support the coalition.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/images/afghanistan-1300.jpg

Managing the Downturn: Collateral Damage Series

The Boston Consulting Group, December 2009

The global financial crisis is no longer just a financial crisis—it is engulfing the wider economy. In our Collateral Damage series, we explain the background to the current troubles, analyze the impact of government actions around the world, explore likely economic scenarios, and examine the challenges facing companies outside the financial sector. We also set out a rapid but comprehensive action plan for senior executives that should take around three to six weeks to formulate and start implementing.
Two key features underpin the Collateral Damage series:

- A comprehensive, big-picture analysis of the global economic downturn as it evolves in different regions, countries, and sectors

- Practical guidance for senior executives on tried and tested steps that should be taken to protect companies from the worst of the crisis and to prepare them for when the economy recovers

http://www.bcg.com/expertise_impact/capabilities/managing_in_the_downturn/collateral_damage.aspx

Death in Camp Delta

Seton Hall – Law, December 8, 2009

Seton Hall University School of Law’s Center for Policy & Research has issued a report, Death in Camp Delta, which finds dramatic flaws in the government’s investigation of three simultaneous deaths of detainees in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. The June 2006 deaths raised serious questions about the security of the Camp, and this report highlights the derelictions of duty by officials of multiple defense and intelligence agencies who allowed three detainees to die and elected not to conduct a proper investigation into the cause of the deaths.

http://law.shu.edu/programscenters/publicintgovserv/policyresearch/upload/gtmo_death_camp_delta.pdf

A world Map of Nuclear Explosions

tumblr blog - We Love Data Visualizations, December 2009

This map lists every nuclear explosion, the setting, the year, and the responsible party. Once you’re at the link, click on the image for a larger view.

http://i.imgur.com/Pik5g.jpg

Strategies Against Human Trafficking: The Role of the Security Sector

National Defense Academy and Bureau of for Security Policy, November 2009

“Much has been written about human trafficking over recent years. While this book rehearses the main points, it also fills gaps. The chapters, written by prominent experts in their fields, contribute to counter-trafficking by providing concrete recommendations for how to improve policy implementation, networking among the various counter-trafficking stakeholders, and research and evaluation. Crucially, the authors argue against oversimplified “solutions,” revealing that counter-trafficking is rife with trade-offs and unintended consequences. By problematising common assumptions, the book thus underlines the complexity of trafficking and the trickiness of countertrafficking, while still highlighting how progress can be made.”

http://www.bmlv.gv.at/pdf_pool/publikationen/trafficking_mit_fn-2608.pdf

Kazakhstan at a Crossroads: Human Rights and Democracy

ISN Publication, December 2, 2009

This paper analyzes the state and status of Kazakhstan at the start of a new decade and the country's chairmanship of the OSCE in 2010. The author argues that the country is going to be put under a level of international scrutiny it has not seen since its emergence as an independent state at the collapse of the Soviet Union. The report examines human rights and media and religious freedoms in more detail.

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110296/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/59C322BF-F19A-4514-B6AD-BC9B547B34F6/en/1152.pdf

Maritime Terrorism – A Threat to World Trade?

ISN Publication, December 7, 2009

This speech explores the threat of maritime terrorism, its impact on trade and public opinion, as well as the issue of maritime security. The author argues that maritime terrorism is a reality and that in particular choke points and mega harbors are in the focus of terrorists. He stresses that fighting potential maritime terrorism and piracy cooperation between state institutions and the private sector is crucial.

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110282/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/A68C9B03-98F6-4CD1-8CAC-AC0A390CFF0B/en/MaritimeTerrorism.pdf

Radiological Survey of Downtown Washington DC

National Nuclear Security Administration, March 2009

In mid-January 2009, in advance of the inauguration of President Obama, a radiological survey of downtown Washington, DC was conducted at the request of the Secret Service.

No statistically significant man-made radiological activity was detected in the survey. Typical variations in natural background radiation were found, along with slightly elevated readings at the National World War II Memorial and elsewhere “caused by the building materials containing naturally occurring radioisotopes.”

http://www.fas.org/sgp/eprint/dc-rad.pdf

Handing Back Responsibility to Timor-Leste's Police

ISN Publication, December 3, 2009

This report outlines the need for a new partnership between the Timor-Leste government and the UN mission addressing the status of the country's police force. A new framework is needed in order to salvage the UN-Timor-Leste relationship and to give the local police the autonomy and official legitimacy it already has on the ground. The report provides recommendations to the Timor-Leste government, the UN mission and bilateral donors.

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110294/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/370EAF06-158B-42AE-9BE1-91ACD683AFEC/en/180_timor_lestes_police.pdf

Democratic Governance and the Rule of Law: Lessons From Colombia

ISN Publication, December 2009

This paper explores the impact of revolutionary changes in the administration of law on governance in Colombia. The author argues that the country has become much safer through the imposition of the rule of law. He describes how, while fighting a war against terrorists and narcotics traffickers, Colombia began converting its judicial system from the Roman law-based inquisitorial system to an accusatory system. He underlines the role of the US in assisting with money and advice as part of its overall support program under Plan Colombia.

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110219/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/FEAA79A0-EE24-42B1-9224-72AD129FE444/en/2009-12_DemocraticGovernance.pdf

Implementing the Obama Cyber Security Strategy via the ISA Social Contract Model

beSpecific, December 6, 2009

"The Internet Security Alliance (ISA) report aimed at taking the Obama Administration’s Cyberspace Policy Review document to the next level. The report emphasizes the need to focus on the economics of cyber security."

http://www.isalliance.org/images/stories/downloads_pdf/Implementing_the_Obama_Cyber_Security_Strategy.pdf

Understanding the Role of Deterrence in Counterterrorism Security

RAND Corp., December 2009

Deterrence -- a central feature of counterterrorism security systems -- is not well understood or measured. This paper offers a conceptual model for understanding how security systems may deter (or merely displace) attacks and a measurement framework for establishing the relative deterrent value of alternative security systems. Because deterrence may be the most important effect of some counterterrorism security programs, this framework may be useful to security policymakers who are trying to increase the security benefits they can achieve with limited resources.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP281.pdf

A Compendium of Sexual Assault Research

RAND Corp., December 2009

Recognition of the prevalence and pernicious effects of sexual assault, and especially of acquaintance rape, has increased dramatically since the early 1990s. During this time, a large volume of research has enhanced understanding of the problem. This volume summarizes recent studies on sexual assault that the authors deem useful and relevant to the U.S. Department of Defense and other policymakers interested in sexual assault issues. The authors provide a brief overview of the prevalence and effects of sexual assault, and of important events and laws pertaining to sexual assault in both the civilian and military sectors. They then discuss the research that has been conducted on ten aspects of sexual assault, including its prevalence, victim and perpetrator characteristics and risk factors, prevention, recovery and coping, and the responses of the health care, law enforcement, and criminal justice systems. Finally, in this compendium's annotated bibliography, the authors summarize more than 450 studies of sexual assault, tailoring their descriptions of research from a variety of fields for an audience of policymakers and informed lay readers.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/2009/RAND_TR617.pdf

Country Analysis Brief: Saudi Arabia

Energy Information Administration (EIA), December, 2009

Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). With approximately one-fifth of the world’s proven oil reserves and some of the lowest production costs, Saudi Arabia is expected to remain the world’s largest net oil exporter in the near and long-term.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Saudi_Arabia/pdf.pdf

Nov 26 – Dec 03, 2009

2009-12-03T11:59:00.001-05:00

RAND’s Portfolio Analysis Tool: Theory, Methods, and Reference Manual

RAND Corp, Dececmber, 2009

Strategic planning often involves investing in a mix of capabilities and activities and assessing the adequacy of options for meeting a variety of objectives. Such an analysis “portfolio” may be characterized by allocation across investment categories or by the corresponding allocation across objectives. RAND's Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT) was designed to facilitate strategic analysis dealing with both uncertainty and differences of perspective.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/2009/RAND_TR756.pdf

Medvedev's Amendments to the Law on Defense: The Consequences for Europe

ISN Publication, November 27, 2009

This brief examines the Russian Law on Defense, particularly the so-called Medvedev amendments that allow for Russian troops to be deployed abroad for four purposes. The author argues that the vagueness of these amendments enables Russia to deploy its armed forces abroad in a wide range of situations. The ultimate aim, the author posits, may be for Russia to use this military leverage to consolidate its domination of the post-Soviet space.

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110095/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/8974B12F-4EFB-4C34-84C3-4B3B3F185FD0/en/UPI_Briefing_Paper_47_2009.pdf

Afghanistan Strategy on Stage: Five Key Questions for the Administration

CNAS, December 01, 2009

The upcoming congressional testimony of President Obama's national security team on Afghanistan may be the most pivotal since September 2007. Upon the President's announcement to send 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan, President John Nagl and CNAS Senior Fellow Richard Fontaine lay out five key questions that Congress and the administration should consider.

http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS%20Brief_Five%20Key%20Questions%20for%20the%20Administration_December%202009_1.pdf

Crisis Watch, Nr. 76

ISN Publication, December 01, 2009

In Yemen, ongoing fighting in the northern Saada region between the government and Houthi-led rebels spilled across the country’s border when the rebels launched an incursion into the Jebel Dukhan area of neighboring Saudi Arabia on 3 November. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the northwest province of Equateur erupted in violent clashes over farming and fishing rights in late October and November. November also brought a sharp escalation in tensions between Venezuela and Colombia, as Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez lashed out over a controversial deal authorizing the U.S. to use several military bases on Colombian territory for counter-narcotics operations.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/getfile.cfm?id=4187&tid=6405&type=pdf&l=1

India and its South Asian Neighbors

ISN Publication, December 01, 2009

This paper provides a summary analysis of India's relations with each of its immediate neighbors - except China - and outlines the evolution of India's foreign policy since the 1990s. The author notes that India, as a regional hegemon, would prefer a peaceful and prosperous neighborhood responsive to its own needs, but this is unlikely to occur in the foreseeable future. The paper offers some conclusions on India's approach to its neighbors, suggesting it is often too reactive, and at times quite dismissive though this has been improving.

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110081/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/85336995-D15F-4277-976F-53BABCFCA84F/en/99.pdf

Cyprus: A Unique Opportunity for Reunification

ISN Publication, November 25, 2009

This paper analyzes the situation in the negotiations over the reunification of Cyprus, highlighting the main issues at stake and the positions of the protagonists. The author argues that there is a unique window of opportunity, but one that will not remain open forever. He stresses that time is running out as the Turkish Cypriot leader faces re-election in April 2010 and could be defeated by a more hard-line candidate. He concludes that the Cyprus problem is likely to come to a head during Spain's presidency of the EU in the first half of 2010.

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110111/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/94081B18-3B1A-48A1-9436-16F27AE89257/en/WP_61_English.pdf

The Talibanisation of Pakistan’s Western Region

ISN Publication, November 24, 2009

This paper analyzes the deterioration of the political and security situation in the western regions of Pakistan: the Federally Administered Tribal Regions (FATA), the North-West Frontier Province and Balochistan. It discusses the historical background of the situation, including the system of governance evolved by the British for the FATA. The author assesses and evaluates the Pakistani government's response to the security situation, and gives policy recommendations as to how peace could be achieved in the region.

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110078/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/09A027F4-A3AB-4D03-8A5A-84A4471E24F3/en/97.pdf

Understanding Commanders' Information Needs for Influence Operations

RAND Corp., November 23, 2009

The objectives of this study were to develop a better understanding of commanders' information requirements pertaining to cultural and other “soft” factors (e.g., networks and hierarchies, cultural norms, attitudes) in order to improve the effectiveness of combined arms operations, and to develop practical ways for commanders to integrate information and influence operations activities into combined arms planning and assessment in order to increase the usefulness to ground commanders of such operations. The monograph describes commanders' own views of their information needs for information and influence operations, identifies principal sources of commanders' information needs for these operations, and sets out important challenges associated with improving the ability of field commanders to plan, execute, and assess successful information and influence operations. Also included is a review of various indicators related to information and influence operations that have been used in the field; specific message themes that were used in Bosnia; a detailed analysis of tasks related to information and influence operations; an implementation plan for a metrics-based planning and assessment approach for information and influence operations that was developed in an earlier study; a taxonomy of information operations tasks and effects; and assessments of the suitability of two analytic techniques — expected utility modeling and social network analysis — for information and influence operations.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG656.pdf

Climate Commitments to 2050: A Roadmap for China

ISN Publication, December 2009

This publication addresses the issue of climate change and state commitments. It first provides an exposition of the likely Chinese negotiating position for international climate talks, especially for the Copenhagen conference. Then, different authors discuss the uncertainty of emissions trajectory and the legal nature of binding commitments. They also analyze wider issues in international climate talks and the urgency of making commitments for 2013.

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110055/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/75E34847-0E4B-40AA-A703-219A6144AF14/en/dialogue004.pdf

Libya: A Critical Review of Tripoli’s Sub-Saharan African Policies

ISN Publication, November 23, 2009

This paper examines Libya's foreign policy in a geopolitical context and in relation to sub-Saharan Africa in particular. The first section looks at the internal structures of the Jamahiriya and addresses the internal dynamics within the revolutionary committees in the country. The second section deals with the main geopolitical factors that can be said to inform Libya's foreign policy. The third section looks at Libya's presumed role in the political (de)-stabilization of some African countries, particularly in Central and West Africa. The fourth section examines Libya's role as a peace broker and development partner in Africa.

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110054/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/22392FA9-AC75-491A-A875-32F88F6B51AB/en/23NOV09LIBYA.pdf

Virtual Criminology Report 2009 – Virtually Here: The Age of Cyber Warfare

McAfee, 2009

From McAfee introduction: “Is the “Age of Cyber War” at hand? This year, the fifth annual McAfee Virtual Criminology Report contemplates this question and others prompted by the fact that nation-states are arming themselves for the cyberspace battlefield. Since our 2007 report, when we last discussed the growing cyber threat to national security, there have been increasing reports of cyber attacks and network infiltrations that appear to be linked to nation-states and political goals. The most obvious of these attacks was the August 2008 cyber campaign against

Georgia during the South Ossetia War. We decided it was time to further examine whether cyber warfare is now a part of human conflict that we should get used to seeing more often.”

http://img.en25.com/Web/McAfee/VCR_2009_EN_VIRTUAL_CRIMINOLOGY_RPT_NOREG.pdf

Hamid Karzai’s Second Term as Afghanistan’s President: Promises, Challenges, and Prospects

ISN Publication, November 24, 2009

This brief examines President Hamid Karzai's second term in Afghanistan and particularly its challenges and prospects. The author analyzes Karzai's pledges, the issue of corruption and the US position in more detail.

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/110057/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/996542D5-874B-4A98-B4C5-801EE7731A7E/en/142.pdf

Warming Increases the Risk of Civil War in Africa

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), October 14, 2009

Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments’ and foreign aid donors’ policies to deal with rising temperatures.

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/11/20/0907998106.full.pdf

Armed Conflict Deaths Disaggregated by Gender

ISN Publication, November 23, 2009

This paper attempts to assess the impact of armed conflict on populations through a gender-focused approach. The authors use gender-specific casualty data to provide an empirical framework for such a study. They conclude that although men are more likely to die during conflicts, women die more often of indirect causes after the conflict is over.

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109997/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/51A1ED80-50EA-415D-8F67-9DA272A35F74/en/Armed+Conflict+Deaths+Disaggregated+by+Gender.pdf

Afghanistan: Elections and the Crisis of Governance

ISN Publication, November 25, 2009

This brief analyzes the Afghan elections, their aftermath and the breakdown of governance under Hamid Karzai's watch. The authors argue that to restore legitimacy and stability, vigorous constitutional reform must be undertaken; an impartial inquiry into the flawed elections should be formed; the UN Mission in Afghanistan should be restructured to restore credibility, and prompt steps must be taken to strengthen institutions.

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109994/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/226A6EE0-368E-4037-B5F1-394D2AD3DD27/en/b96_afghanistan_elections.pdf

My Cousin’s Enemy is my Friend: A Study of Pashtun “Tribes” in Afghanistan

US Army – Afghanistan Research Reachback Center, September 2009

http://easterncampaign.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/my-cousins-enemy-is-my-friend-a-study-of-pashtun-tribes.pdf

State of the World Population 2009

United Nations Population Fund, Fall 2009

A growing body of evidence shows that recent climate change is primarily the result of human activity. The influence of human activity on climate change is complex. It is about what we consume, the types of energy we produce and use, whether we live in a city or on a farm, whether we live in a rich or poor country, whether we are young or old, what we eat, and even the extent to which women and men enjoy equal rights and opportunities. It is also about our growing numbers—approaching 7 billion.

http://www.unfpa.org/swp/2009/en/pdf/EN_SOWP09.pdf

Caribbean Country Study

Energy Information Administration, Fall 2009

The islands of the Caribbean basin are predominantly net energy importers, with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago. Some islands, such as Aruba, Curacao, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, are important centers for oil refining and storage, due to their proximity to the U.S. market. In recent years, there has been concern that higher global oil prices will impair the Caribbean economies, as they are highly dependent upon oil for the energy needs. In response, the island nations have been discussing ways to promote alternative energy sources and better integrate their energy sectors.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Caribbean/pdf.pdf

Estimated Nuclear Weapons Locations 2009

Federation of American Scientists (FAS) National Security Blog, Hans M. Kristensen, November 25, 2009

The world’s approximately 23,300 nuclear weapons are stored at an estimated 111 locations in 14 countries, according to an overview produced by FAS and NRDC.

Nearly half of the weapons are operationally deployed with delivery systems capable of launching on short notice. The overview is published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and includes the July 2009 START memorandum of understanding data. A previous version was included in the annual report from the International Panel of Fissile Materials published last month.

http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/11/locations.php

Map: http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/images/globaled.jpg

Nov 20 – Nov 25, 2009

2009-11-25T11:18:00.001-05:00

Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons: how safe are they?

ISN, November 18, 2009

This brief discusses the safety and security of Pakistani nuclear facilities in the face of terrorism. It discusses US involvement in protecting the facilities and the steps Pakistan has taken to prevent their misuse or misappropriation.

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109844/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/EB3B339A-4DF3-4E01-813B-7A479971B47C/en/141.pdf

On the Knife’s Edge: Yemen’s instability and the threat to American interests

ISN, November 20, 2009

This policy brief outlines the severity of Yemen's internal security challenges and offers several policy recommendations to improve regional stability and reduce the threat to US national interests. The authors argue that the deteriorating situation in Yemen, resulting from separatist and insurgent movements as well as a growing presence of al-Qaida demands immediate US attention. Otherwise, the authors argue, the likelihood of Yemen becoming a failed state will increase. The authors call for US commitment to a comprehensive engagement plan including diplomatic pressure, regional dialogue and economic incentives.

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109850/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/CEA243D7-120C-401D-AC58-442B616DF71F/en/yemen_Policy_Brief_0.pdf

India: Defense in Mind

Lemonde Diplomatique, November 23, 2009

These two graphics display India’s defense mechanisms as they pertain to major sea routes, military bases, strategic chokepoints, and foreign force projection. The graphic also displays the Indian Diaspora, nuclear disposition, and areas of cultural/ethnic violence.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_l240WvbBfEs/SwqUMgvDdOI/AAAAAAAAByE/A-FIchL9D84/s1600/IndiasDefence1.gif

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_l240WvbBfEs/SwqUMNfK2bI/AAAAAAAABx8/TwRIrXPJdxo/s1600/Indiandefence2.gif

Iran’s Naval Forces: From Guerilla Warfare to a Modern Naval Strategy

Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI), Fall 2009

A new report from the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence describes Iran’s naval order of battle, as well as the Iranian Navy’s history, strategic options, and favored tactics. The unclassified U.S. intelligence assessment was published on the Office of Naval Intelligence website, but last week it was abruptly withdrawn, along with another ONI report on China’s navy.

http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/oni/iran-navy.pdf

Energy and Geopolitics in China

CSIS Energy and National Security Program, November 23, 2009

The world was surprised when China emerged in 2004 as a major importer and consumer of oil. Today, that surprise has been replaced by growing concern that the China of tomorrow may be in a position to challenge the United States not only for economic leadership but for political leadership as well. This report explores, among other issues, the limits to growth that currently confront China. The author analyzes how the country seeks to reduce its vulnerability deriving from its ever-increasing reliance on imports of oil, including the issue of diversity among sources of supply and how that supply moves to China. Threats to supply lines are examined and means to offset those threats are spelled out. In addition, the report considers China’s demographic dilemma—a population and declining birthrates—a challenge that may very well define China’s future.

http://csis.org/files/publication/091116_Ebel_EnergyGeoPolChina_Web.pdf

Russia-Georgia Relations

ISN, November 23, 2009

This paper looks at the state of Georgian-Russian relations one year after the end of both countries' conflict. It reviews the findings of the EU war report, discusses Georgia's policy toward Russia and the disputed regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and examines the Georgians' attitudes to Russia. Subsequently, it presents the findings of related opinion polls.

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109833/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/4E1EA849-74F9-4BC3-BC0A-30C674F3CD5F/en/Russian_Analytical_Digest_68.pdf

Counter Ideology: Role of Media Relations

ISN, November 18, 2009

This commentary examines the importance of effective media relations for counter ideology groups and counter ideology work in Muslim communities. In it a group of journalists share their views on how self-help groups should relate to the media to forge greater cooperation in inoculating the public from extremist propaganda

http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109746/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/AFC24901-4483-4F88-9C87-AB34CCF415AE/en/RSIS1142009.pdf

Infostate of Africa 2009

Appfrica Labs, November 13, 2009

People often only see Africa from one perspective, here’s another. This infographic details some of the happenings over the past few years in regards to infrastructure improvement and capacity building in Africa, particularly in the area of the internet and cost. The sources are various reports from the International Monetary Fund, InternetWorldStats, the Millennium Development Goals, research papers, various websites, executive market research and more; compiling some fascinating facts about the continent’s ‘infostate’ (trends in information technology and communication).

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2614/4100142073_a2dd5466d9_b_d.jpg

The People’s Liberation Army Navy: a modern navy with Chinese characteristics

Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI), November 2009

“China’s modernization efforts have principally focused on preparing for a Taiwan conflict, with a large portion directed at developing capabilities to deter, delay, and if necessary degrade potential U.S. military intervention,” the ONI report said. China has “developed the world’s only anti-ship ballistic missile,” which ONI said was “specifically designed to defeat U.S. carrier strike groups” in the event of military conflict over Taiwan.

http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/oni/pla-navy.pdf

Supplemental Reading:

The Congressional Research Service provided additional information in “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities — Background and Issues for Congress” (pdf), updated October 21, 2009

Map of Multilateral Peace Operations Deployments

ISN, November 2009

This link offered by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) provides a map and estimates of the size and start date of multilateral peace operation deployments worldwide.

http://books.sipri.org/files/misc/SIPRIPKOMAP0909.pdf

Exploring the Reach and Limitations of Iranian Power in the Middle East

RAND, November 2009

Following the U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, the Iranian threat to U.S. interests has taken on seemingly unprecedented qualities of aggressiveness and urgency. Added to its provocative positions on the nuclear program, support for non-state militants, and development of threatening military capabilities is the sense that Iran is trying to effect far-reaching changes on the regional and even global stage. Within this context, this report aims to provide policy planners with a new framework for anticipating and preparing for the strategic challenges Iran will present over the next ten to fifteen years. In an analysis grounded in the observation that although Iranian power projection is marked by strengths, it also has serious liabilities and limitations, this report assesses four critical areas — the

Iranian regime's perception of itself as a regional and even global power,
Iran's conventional military buildup and aspirations for asymmetric warfare,
Its support to Islamist militant groups,
and its appeal to Arab public opinion.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG781.pdf

Nov 13 – Nov 19, 2009

2009-11-19T10:50:00.005-05:00

2010 Army Weapon Systems Handbook
US Army, November 18, 2009
The U.S. Army has published the latest edition of its Army Weapon Systems handbook, cataloging dozens of Army weapons with descriptive information, status updates, contractor relationships, and images. “The systems listed in this book are not isolated, individual products,” the introduction says. “Rather, they are part of an integrated investment approach to make the Army of the future able to deal successfully with the challenges it will face.”
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/wsh2010/wsh2010.pdf

US Navy Arctic Roadmap
US Navy Task Force Climate Change (TFCC), October 2009
The dwindling Arctic ice cap has launched an international race for control of northern waters: Russia, Canada, Denmark, and even China are hustling to expand their military presence, plant flags and eye those 90 billion barrels of natural gas under the cap. Now the U.S. Navy’s getting ready for the thaw, with a strategic plan to maximize the U.S. stake up north.
The Navy’s Arctic Roadmap opens with an acknowledgment that worldwide temperatures are on the rise — especially up north. “The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe. While significant uncertainty exists in projections for Arctic ice extent, the current scientific consensus indicates the Arctic may experience nearly ice-free summers sometime in the 2030s,” the document notes.
http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/dangerroom/2009/11/us-navy-arctic-roadmap-nov-2009.pdf

Bangladesh – India Relations: some recent trends
ISN Publication, November 12, 2009
This paper explores the critical facets of contemporary Bangladesh-India relations and deal with the broad issues that directly impinge on this relationship. In assessing the challenges between the two countries and the need to overcome them, the author examines trends and explores a possible framework for the future direction of India-Bangladesh relations. He stresses the need for greater understanding, dialogue, diplomacy, regional cooperation and less interference in each other’s internal affairs.
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109735/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/607D457F-CB0E-4D72-A342-9C05F7596D5F/en/95.pdf

The Democratic Party of Japan and North Korea Policy
ISN Publication, November 16, 2009
This brief analyzes the Democratic Party of Japan's North Korea policy and its alignment with US policy. The author argues that despite divergence on other issues, the new Japanese government and the US will stay closely aligned on North Korea.
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109734/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/BFCA8652-E65B-4D41-8E0D-62BFF53238CC/en/apb043.pdf

Turkey, Russia and the Caucasus: Common and Diverging Interests
Chatham House Briefing Papers, November 2009
The Russo-Georgian conflict in August 2008 compelled decision-makers in Ankara to reassess their policies towards Russia and the Caucasus. Turkey had developed burgeoning economic and political ties with Russia and maintained close links with neighboring Georgia. The conflict raised questions over whether Turkey would become a key energy transit state given the deteriorating security situation in the South Caucasus. Relations between Ankara and Moscow were challenged as both had previously stressed their common interests in preserving regional stability. However, the conflict opened up possibilities for Turkey to normalize relations with Armenia, although this could upset Ankara’s close ties with Baku.
http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/15211_bp1109turkey.pdf

The Political Situation in Russia’s Regions
Center for Security Studies (CSS), November 09, 2009
This paper provides insights into Russia's regional politics, presenting four case studies. It addresses the general trends and special features of Russia's subnational authoritarianism, examines the political transformation of local government regimes through an analysis of elites and comments on the governor of St Petersburg. Furthermore, it assesses the implications of plans to redirect regional rents from oil and gas production from Tyumen Oblast to the federal center in Moscow.
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109380/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/C0EED8B5-88F0-4475-ACF7-8B8A7BD9B1DE/en/Russian_Analytical_Digest_67.pdf

APEC at 20
ISN Publication, November 11, 2009
This paper comments on the achievements of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) in its 20 years of existence. The author examines whether the consensual, inclusive norm that has propelled APEC can be the driving force to bind regional groups together.
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109530/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/9652D759-5997-4AD2-89E1-4B7AEB9E48E0/en/RSIS1112009.pdf

The Armed Forces of Southeast Asia in 2020
ISN Publication, November 10, 2009
This paper argues that the future shape and structure of the armed forces of Southeast Asia is a fundamental question for the region's military. According to the author, the way in which the regional armed forces answer this question will be shaped by three considerations: technologies of the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA), escaping the US' technological universe, and how to afford the RMA.
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109524/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/364867E5-DE4D-4AE5-95C5-E9A3C336C471/en/RSIS1102009.pdf

Different Lenses on the Future: US and Singaporean approaches to strategic planning
ISN Publication, November 04, 2009
This paper compares government strategic planning in Singapore with that of the US, and examines the contextual differences that give rise to their divergent approaches. While Singapore does not enjoy the US' size advantage, the author argues that its approach is enabled as much by cultural, historical and geographical factors as it is by government willingness to invest in organizational innovation. He concludes with an assessment of what the two countries can learn from each other.
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109532/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/AD7F7189-E642-4620-BE7F-1418C280B087/en/WP186.pdf

Capability of the People’s Republic of China to Conduct Cyber Warfare and Computer Network Exploitation
Northrop Grumman, for the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, October 9, 2009
This paper presents a comprehensive open source assessment of China’s capability to conduct computer network operations (CNO) both during peacetime and periods of conflict. The result will hopefully serve as useful reference to policymakers, China specialists, and information operations professionals. The research for this project encompassed five broad categories to show how the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is pursuing computer network operations (CNO) and the extent to which it is being implemented.
http://www.uscc.gov/researchpapers/2009/NorthropGrumman_PRC_Cyber_Paper_FINAL_Approved%20Report_16Oct2009.pdf

SAUDI ARABIA: Ideological and Financial Center of Jihad?
South Asia Analysis Group, paper #3499, November 11, 2009
With fusion of religion and political control, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia derived religious legitimacy from being the custodian of the two holiest shrines and controller of annual Haj pilgrimage and positioned itself to be the authoritative voice of Islamic world. However, when it faced the challenge of the Jihadi terrorists in its own land in late seventies of last century, it started spending billions of dollars for spreading Wahhabism in different countries with the objective to developing a clout in Islamic establishments. Due to this persistent and ruthless endeavour Wahhabi thought and customs are not only taking root among sizeable section of world Muslims but are also making inroads even among the peace loving faithfuls.
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers35/paper3499.html

India’s Strategic Defense Transformation: expanding global relationships
Strategic Studies Institute – US Army War College, November 11, 2009
India’s transformation to modernize its military, obtain “strategic partnerships” with the United States and other nations, and expand its influence in the Indian Ocean and beyond includes a shift from an emphasis on the former Soviet Union as the primary supplier of defense articles to a western base of supply and an increasing emphasis on bilateral exercises and training with many of the global powers. The author explores the nature of this transformation, offers insights into the history of Indian defense relations, and suggests implications to U.S. foreign and defense policy. Much has been written regarding India’s relations with its neighbors, especially Pakistan and China. The author adds a new perspective by taking a global view of India’s rise as a regional and future global military power through its bilateral defense relations and the potential conflict this creates with India’s legacy as a leader of the Non-Aligned Movement.
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/download.cfm?q=950

Nov 5 – Nov 12, 2009

2009-11-12T10:38:00.004-05:00

Who is the Imam Consulted by the Ft. Hood Assassin?: A Look at the Terrorist Ties of Anwar al-Aulaqi and the Radicalization Process
International Assessment and Strategy Center, by Susan Schmidt, November 9, 2009

Anwar al-Aulaqi (also spelled as ‘Awlaki’), the former imam of mosques in Falls Church and San Diego was a spiritual advisor to two of the 9/11 hijackers and Nidal Hasan (Ft. Hood assassin). Aulaqi is suspected of involvement in terrorist plots directed at the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and other parts of the world.
http://www.strategycenter.net/research/pubID.218/pub_detail.asp
Related articles:
http://www.nefafoundation.org/miscellaneous/FeaturedDocs/nefabackgrounder_alawlaki.pdf
http://counterterrorismblog.org/2009/11/investigating_ft_hood_anwar_al.php

Global Maritime and Air Communities of Interest Intelligence Enterprises
DNI Inaugural Report, November 2009
This report discusses the progress that has been made in the maritime and air intelligence enterprises, but focuses on the challenges that still remain. With increasing threats to ports and waterways, it is important to overcome the remaining challenges in both air and maritime intelligence “to overcome cultural and institutional resistance” to cooperation, particularly given the “sharply diminished” sense of urgency since 9/11.
http://www.fas.org/irp/dni/gmaci.pdf

Afghan National Security Forces: Shaping Host Country Forces as Part of Armed Nation Building
Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), Draft November 4, 2009
Executive Summary: Afghanistan and Iraq have both shown that the United States must look far beyond the normal definition of counterinsurgency to determine how it can conduct armed nation building as a critical element of hybrid warfare. This requires an integrated civil-military effort in which providing lasting security for the population, and economic and political stability, will often be far more important than success in tactical engagements with enemy forces. It also requires the US to understand that important as its traditional allies are, the key ally will be the host country and not simply its government but its population.
http://csis.org/files/publication/091104_ansf_review_draft.pdf

Analysing and Managing the Political Dynamics of Sector Reforms: Sourcebook on Sector-level Political Economy Approaches
ISN Publication, November 2009
This paper presents approaches, frameworks and studies designed to analyze and manage political dynamics of sector reforms in the context of development cooperation. The author identifies four types of dynamics impact on reforms at the sector-level: sector-specific dynamics, cross-sectoral dynamics, the dynamics of the political process and country-wide dynamics.
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109291/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/5E316CF3-F1EE-488B-8654-F034CBF602CE/en/wp309.pdf

2009 Business Social Media Benchmarking Study
Business.com, November 2009
This study "was designed to assess current trends in the use of social media in North American businesses. Based on 2,948 valid responses to our online Business Social Media Benchmarking Survey during August and early September, 2009, the results provide a very useful benchmark for where businesses, and business people, are finding value in social media across different activities and sites. The study was focused on social media utilization – how people and companies are using social media in a work context today – and not on adoption."
http://img.en25.com/Web/BusinessCom/BDC%202009%20Social%20Media%20Benchmark.pdf

Deconstructing Analysis Techniques
Johnny Holland Magazine, February 2009
Analysis is that oft-glossed over, but extremely important step in the research process that sits between observation (data gathering) and our design insights or recommendations. In many respects, analysis is crucial to realizing the value of our research since good analysis can salvage something from bad research, but the converse is not so true. This is where the literature tends to fall a little silent, jumping over the analysis techniques straight to a discussion of how best to document and communicate the findings from analysis. This article seeks to begin to redress that imbalance by breaking down the analysis black box into its major sub-techniques.
http://johnnyholland.org/2009/02/17/deconstructing-analysis-techniques/

EU Organised Crime Threat Assessment
Europol, 2009
This is "the fourth European Union Organised Crime Threat Assessment (2009 OCTA). The OCTA is a core product of the intelligence-led law enforcement concept and its drafting is one of Europol’s top priorities."
http://www.europol.europa.eu/publications/European_Organised_Crime_Threat_Assessment_(OCTA)/OCTA2009.pdf

India: FICCI’s Report “Task Force Report on National Security & Terrorism”
FICCI, 2009

http://www.ficci.com/SPdocument/20032/terrorism-report.pdf

Future Soldier Systems: Promise or Hubris of the Network-Centric Infantryman
ISN Publication, November 5, 2009
This commentary examines the possibilities and limitations of 'Future Soldier' (FS) systems, which are based upon network-centric technology but do not address the complex human-centric issues associated with urban warfare. The author makes reference to the US Army's Land Warrior System and the Singapore Armed Forces' Combat Man System, noting their weight and power-supply problems, before warning against the dehumanization and micro-managing tendencies of FS.
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109343/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/47F1F555-6046-4B91-9B30-DB1DE678BDD9/en/RSIS1082009.pdf

Venezuela: Accelerating the Bolivarian Revolution
ISN Publication, November 5, 2009
This brief examines the acceleration of the Bolivarian revolution in Venezuela and the status of Hugo Chavez's rule. The brief notes that despite mounting economic problems and societal tensions, Chavez is likely to retain control of the National Assembly and of the pace and direction of change in the country. Although opposition forces are attempting to challenge Chavez in the 2010 elections, 2009 has been a year of intensification of Chavez's anti-democratic and anti-liberal policies.
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109382/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/8704E392-9DCB-469F-9912-02DF07E91CF4/en/b22_venezuela_bolivarian_revolution.pdf

India Assembly Elections 2009: Another Blow for the Bharatiya Janata Party
ISN Publication, November 3, 2009
This paper examines the results of the October 2009 assembly elections in three Indian states – Maharashtra, Haryana and Arunachal Pradesh. It analyzes the reasons for the Congress Party's victory and the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) defeat. The author observes that, apart from Arunachal Pradesh, the Congress Party's successes in Maharashtra and Haryana were not entirely convincing. What however unequivocally emerged, he argues, was that the BJP's lacklustre campaign contributed to the Congress Party's victories. He concludes that the BJP, bereft of any leadership, virtually lost the elections even before they began.
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109383/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/84E91DBF-60D6-4078-974C-E982B18F2647/en/136.pdf

Oct 29 – Nov 04, 2009

2009-11-04T10:25:00.006-05:00

Shades of Red: China’s Debate over North Korea
ISN Publication
This publication discusses the relationship between China and North Korea. It explains the rationale behind China's foreign policy towards North Korea and points out that a stable North Korea is its main interest. The report also describes how China sees the role of the US in the region.
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109222/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/CB444D88-703F-4036-B270-0358419A3983/en/179_chinas_debate_over_north_korea.pdf

Schools for Strategy: Teaching Strategy for 21st Century Conflict
ISN Publication
This paper emphasizes the necessity for strategic education to help develop the way of thinking that can solve or illuminate strategic problems. The author advises that such education should not strive for a spurious relevance by presenting a military variant of current affairs. Furthermore, the author argues that a liberal education in the classical sense must be helpful to the human performance, which is a key enabler of high quality in national strategic performance.
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109206/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/E311212A-DF06-43D3-BC65-913C6E8FAAFC/en/2009_11_SchoolsForStrategy.pdf

CTR Vantage: al-Shabaab's recruitment tactics in the West
Center for Terrorism Research at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies
The Center for Terrorism Research at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies has released the first issue of CTR Vantage. Each issue of CTR Vantage will focus on a specific terrorism-related theme. This first issue examines al-Shabaab's recruitment tactics in the West, and efforts that have been made to minimize Shabaab's potential allure in Somali diaspora communities.
The lead article discusses the October 13th indictment of Somali-American, Abbow Munye Abdow, and the application of "false statement" charges in terrorism cases.
The second article is a comprehensive backgrounder on al-Shabaab and the history of the Islamist groups in Somalia.
The third article, titled "Al-Shabaab Recruiting in the West," takes a comprehensive look at what we know about the group's efforts to recruit fighters in the United States, and in other Western countries.
The final article concerns the efficacy of the Somali president's recent diplomatic efforts in Minneapolis, Columbus, OH, and Chicago.
Future issues of CTR Vantage will cover aspects of the Black Nationalist/Islamist movement in the U.S., lessons learned from the terror plots of 2009. CTR Vantage will be published every two to three weeks.
http://www.defenddemocracy.org/images/stories/Al-Shabaabs_Recruiting_Efforts_in_the_West.pdf

The Fatal Allure of Extremist Logic: Syaifudin Zuhri and the July 17 Suicide Bombers
ISN Publication
This article looks at the recruiting tactics of one of the perpetrators of the twin hotel bombings in Jakarta in July 2009, Syaifudin Zuhri Djaelani. The author finds that the suicide bombers he recruited were bright young men who were idealistic and intellectually curious. However, dissatisfaction with the state of affairs in the Muslim world helped the extremist narrative for a wider Muslim struggle that convinced these young men to sacrifice themselves for the cause.
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109105/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/FD3E3836-C997-4AC6-A1F2-2055A046F236/en/RSIS1042009.pdf

Crisis Watch, Nr. 75: October 2009
ISN Publication
This issue of CrisisWatch summarizes developments during the month of October 2009 in some 70 situations of ongoing or potential conflict. These are listed alphabetically by region and provide references and links to more detailed information sources. It assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, during the previous month, significantly deteriorated, improved or on balance remained unchanged. Moreover, it alerts readers to situations where there is a particular risk of escalated conflict or, on the other hand, a conflict resolution opportunity.
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/109060/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/A770BF06-A9D0-4502-AD05-ECA69A4E6308/en/cw75.pdf

The North Carolina Jihad Cell and the Quantico Marine Base Plot
NEFA- “Target: America” Series
The NEFA Foundation has released the 22nd report in the “Target: America” series, a PowerPoint presentation on the accused jihadist network operating in Raleigh, North Carolina and an alleged plot, involving members of that cell, to attack the U.S. Marine Corps base in Quantico, Virginia.
http://www.nefafoundation.org/miscellaneous/FeaturedDocs/nefa_NCJihadCell1109.pdf

CTC Sentinel: Vol.12 Issue 10
Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Articles include:
A Profile of the TTP’s New Leader: Hakimullah Mehsud (Featured Article)
The October 2009 Terrorist Attack in Italy and its Wider Implications
LIFG Revisions Unlikely to Reduce Jihadist Violence
Rethinking Strategies to Secure U.S. Critical Infrastructure
Israel as an Al-Qa`ida Target: Sorting Rhetoric From Reality
Understanding History’s Seven Stages of Jihad
Mao Tse-tung and the Search for 21st Century Counterinsurgency
http://www.ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/CTCSentinel-Vol2Iss10.pdf